Polymer MDI bottoms out and rebounds will be limited

After the Dragon Boat Festival returned, the domestic aggregate MDI market stopped falling and rose, and the price rose by 500-800 yuan (ton price, the same below)
.
At present, in East China, the reference price of barreled cargo in Shanghai is 17,200 yuan, and the reference price of Wanhua barreled cargo is 17,500 yuan

Regarding the market outlook, industry insiders believe that manufacturers control goods and aggregate MDI may still have room for growth in the market outlook, but demand will curb the rise in the off-season
.

Manufacturers control goods and reluctant to sell

Beginning in the second quarter, the aggregate MDI market fell sharply, with the price falling from 25,000 yuan above the 18,000 yuan mark
.
After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market began to rise.

With the small increase in prices, the current average profit of aggregate MDI reached 2,499 yuan, which continued to increase slightly compared with the first half of June, but it was not the same as the profit of more than 12,000 yuan at the peak of the first quarter
.

From the perspective of the operation of the installations, the Yantai Wanhua and Ningbo Wanhua installations are running smoothly; the Shanghai BASF and Shanghai Huntsman installations restart and are in the process of increasing the load; the Shanghai Covestro and Chongqing BASF installations have a load of about 80%; Tocao Ruian The device runs at low load
.

Pan Jinsong, a professor-level senior engineer at the Shandong Institute of Industry and Information Technology, believes that market participants will increase their willingness to enter the market as the northern factory continues to control goods
.
However, the overall supply of the Shanghai factory is tight, the market continues to be positive, and the rising atmosphere is strong.

Raw material support is average

From the perspective of raw material pure benzene, the supply of goods is tight, and the market is strong and volatile
.
However, due to reduced downstream demand and poor profitability, the price of pure benzene will be restricted to a certain extent

According to Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, the recent restart of Lijin Refining & Chemical and China Overseas Energy Plant, the domestic petroleum benzene plant load is 82.
4%
.
Regarding hydrogenated benzene units, the Weifang revitalization and Xinyang technology units restarted operation, and the Tangshan Zhongrun, Henan Yutian, and Anhui Linhuan units that were shut down for maintenance will also be restarted one after another.

From the downstream point of view of pure benzene, the overall profitability is not satisfactory
.
Among them, styrene, phenol ketone and caprolactam are in a state of loss, while cyclohexanone, adipic acid and maleic anhydride remain marginally profitable, but they are close to the cost line in some periods

Wang Quanping believes that the pure benzene market may remain strong in the short-term driven by the supply side, but it is expected to increase supply in June, such as the restart of the pre-maintenance equipment and the commissioning of the second-phase equipment of Zhejiang Petrochemical
.
However, some downstream industries have entered the off-season in demand, and the market has a risk of callback.

Demand is in the off-season

　　Judging from the downstream of aggregate MDI, the recent automotive industry has not been satisfactory
.
In May, the auto industry's sales volume is estimated to be 2.

　　In addition, based on historical experience, May is usually the peak season for traditional home appliance consumption, but industry online data shows that sales of various home appliances in May have cooled to varying degrees
.
At present, the sales of home appliances have not yet recovered to the level of the same period in 2019, and the "May Day" promotional activities have not met expectations
.
The current inventory of household air conditioners and refrigerators continues to rise, and the price increase of home appliances has reduced the willingness of some sensitive consumers to buy, and the demand for home appliances may face a certain downside risk
.

　　Under the influence of weakening downstream demand, the domestic rigid foam polyether market is weak
.
In the early stage, the rigid foam polyether market moved slightly downward following the market of raw material propylene oxide, and the downstream market was dominated by rigid demand
.
However, the propylene oxide market has risen recently, and the cost side has driven the rigid foam polyether market to a slight upward shift, stimulating the increase in downstream rigid demand, but the overall concentration and continuity of new orders is weak
.
Up to now, the actual single reference price of ordinary 4110 hard foam polyether in oil-free barrels in North China and East China is 12,000-12,200 yuan
.
In addition, due to the short-term impact of overseas epidemics and shipping routes, export demand is weak in follow-up, and it is difficult to support the raw material aggregate MDI market
.