Policy -- the theme of "die out" in corn market
-
Last Update: 2002-01-18
-
Source: Internet
-
Author: User
Search more information of high quality chemicals, good prices and reliable suppliers, visit
www.echemi.com
Introduction: Recently, the price of corn in China has recovered in varying degrees The average transaction price of corn in Jilin (third class) in the north is stable at 940 yuan / ton, the price in Heilongjiang Province is also maintained at 920 yuan / ton, the price in Fuzhou in the south is 1140 yuan / ton, the transaction price in Jiangxi Province is also increased to 1040 yuan / ton, and the price in Dalian port is increased from 1000 yuan / ton in the early stage to 1020 yuan / ton at present, from acquisition From the aspect of links, after the early stage of flat development and low price, there are also signs of stabilization in the near future The price of corn purchased by Jilin Province is 0.40-0.42 yuan / Jin in the areas along the line, 0.38 yuan / Jin in the areas not along the line with poor quality, 2 cents / Jin lower in Heilongjiang province than that in Jilin Province, and the price of corn purchased by Henan, Hebei, Shandong and other places is basically the same Keep at 0.42-0.44 yuan / Jin From the perspective of this round of price recovery factors, the Spring Festival is approaching step by step, the number of demand is increasing all over the country, and the price is rising However, it is not difficult to find that a kind of undercurrent in the invisible surging - policy, has been creating conditions for the recovery of the corn market, and the performance of policy factors in the corn market is attributed to The results are as follows: 1 North China and Huang Huai withdrew from the protection price, and northeast corn continued to implement the protection price policy China has officially joined the world trade organization, which means that China's economic development will be in line with the world economy, and the degree of agricultural development will be unprecedented In order to meet the needs of WTO, improve the competitiveness of the domestic corn market in the international market, change China's original backward production, purchase and marketing forms, and enable China's corn industry to win the market, in this way, China's corn industry can win the market Market to determine the market, market to determine the situation However, it is bound to encounter impact while adapting As a developing country with backward agricultural industry, China's agriculture will be difficult to resist the impact if effective protection measures are not taken As the main grain producing area of China, northeast will become the main body of market competition after China's accession to the WTO Therefore, the continued implementation of the protection price policy for the Northeast will more reflect the good intentions of our government The continued implementation of the protection price is conducive to stabilizing the market and providing basic guarantee for the reasonable recovery of prices in the later period 2 Expand domestic demand and increase state-owned reserves of corn The purpose of expanding domestic demand is to stimulate China's economic development and reduce the dependence of the domestic market on the international market In the aspect of agriculture, increasing the state-owned grain reserve plays a more powerful role in promoting the corn market, which is mainly manifested in the following aspects: firstly, to some extent, it slows down the available quantity of the domestic corn market, alleviates the contradiction between supply and demand in the market and helps to promote the price High Second, the task of storage and transportation will be assigned to various groups and storage enterprises Its stable acquisition policy will help the recovery of local prices and promote the stable upward trend of overall prices 3 The corn market benefited from the release of genetically modified rules With the release of the genetically modified detailed rules, the market of soybean "expected to present" has a strong reaction, and prices are generally high everywhere The whole soybean market is shrouded in a "happy" atmosphere, and the corn market does not seem to benefit from this atmosphere However, it is this illusion that blinds people's eyes, and its long-term benefits cannot be ignored In depth, the detailed rules limit the quantity of soybean imports, but also It will limit the amount of corn imports in the future, avoid excessive imports endangering the country's economic security, reduce the pressure on the domestic corn market, provide time for the domestic corn market to gradually digest the pressure, and contribute to the periodic recovery of corn prices in the short term It can be seen that the policy factors have played a solid supporting role in the stabilization and increase of the domestic corn price The development of the corn market in the new year is still inseparable from the policy The specific situation is as follows: 1 It can be seen from the situation of corn planting in recent years that the direction of corn planting has changed under the guidance of policies In the past two years, the Chinese government has been advocating the cultivation of high-yield and high-efficiency food crops Soybean crops have become the first choice because of their high planting efficiency "Corn soybean" rotation plan has been issued accordingly The policy guidance has affected the corn planting area and the yield Due to the continuous harvest of corn in the past few years and the poor market, the domestic corn supply is still greater than the demand in the short term Considering the demand changes in various aspects in the long term, the domestic corn supply is relatively tight, so the country will not reduce the planting area of corn significantly in the short term However, for corn with low output rate and high planting cost, the range of reducing planting area may be very large in the future Therefore, the planting situation of corn in the future will be determined according to national policies 2 Affecting the corn trade Export trade has long been a domestic government action The sharp increase of corn export in 2001 is closely related to the active organization of export by the state After China's accession to the WTO, the government will still look for opportunities to organize exports when it actively completes import quotas and has sufficient domestic inventory Therefore, the policy factors will play a decisive role in the operation of domestic corn trade in the later period 3 Influence the development direction of grain circulation pattern In order to mitigate the impact of China's accession to the WTO on the grain market, the Chinese government will organize grain production and grain management according to the market demand at home and abroad, and establish a unified, open, competitive, orderly and international grain market system Due to the unreasonable planting structure of China's original grain, the circulation of corn has always maintained the way of "transporting grain from the north to the South", and the distribution of corn production is extremely inappropriate from the perspective of time and space Therefore, the focus of grain production and supply has gradually shifted to the central and northern regions In the future, the grain produced in the central and northern regions will mainly solve the grain gap in the western region, while the grain produced in the southeast coastal regions will The demand for food will turn to the international market in part, the policy orientation will become clear, the unreasonable phenomenon in the original grain circulation channels will be gradually changed, and the impact of China's accession to the WTO on the domestic corn market will be reduced Therefore, the policy orientation will become the most powerful backing for China's accession to the WTO 4 Affect the business psychology In 2001, corn in North China, Huanghuai and other places withdrew from the protection price range, and the three northeastern provinces continued to implement the protection price policy, but corn below the third grade was not within the protection range, the protection range and protection level were reduced, and the original supporting role for corn price was weakening With the decrease of the price, the purchasing enthusiasm of the storage enterprises is also decreasing, the purchasing speed of the purchasers is also slow, and the enthusiasm of the farmers to sell grain is also decreasing due to the falling of the price The new measures of the protection policy affect the psychological changes of the operators in the three links of corn production, purchase and sale, and the change of the purchase policy may bring some negative effects on the market in the short term Based on the analysis of the above factors, the change of planting area, the mode of grain circulation, the pattern of import and export trade, and the proportion of market supply and demand are all closely related to the national policies The influencing factors of the policies cover all aspects of the corn market To grasp the future trend of the corn market, we should not only stay in the surface phenomenon of the market, but also carry out the policy on the corn market Through in-depth analysis, the policy will always be the theme of "extinguishing" in the corn market.
This article is an English version of an article which is originally in the Chinese language on echemi.com and is provided for information purposes only.
This website makes no representation or warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness ownership or reliability of
the article or any translations thereof. If you have any concerns or complaints relating to the article, please send an email, providing a detailed
description of the concern or complaint, to
service@echemi.com. A staff member will contact you within 5 working days. Once verified, infringing content
will be removed immediately.