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Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed higher, and London copper rose
slightly.
LME copper stocks 252225 tonnes, down 2,025 tonnes from last week; Copper stocks in the previous period decreased by 13,112 tons to 69,278 tons; The warehouse of Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 301,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons
.
Macro bearishness weakened, copper prices under low inventories short-term or shock recovery trend, pay attention to the upper edge of the range pressure
.
At the macro level, the current September Fed interest rate decision is approaching, the market's expectations for the Fed's TAPER have increased, but the sharp rise in the US dollar in August may also release the impact of this expectation to some extent, while the Biden administration's planning and implementation of new energy infrastructure will have a more important
impact on the future trend of copper prices.
On the supply side, the current TC price of imported ore has recovered to a level close to 60 US dollars / ton, but due to the impact of the global spread of the delta variant, the current shipping is still not smooth, so after mid-to-late August, the recovery rate of TC prices slowed
down significantly.
Domestically, with the rebound of processing fees and the continued surge in sulfuric acid prices, refinery maintenance has been basically completed in July and August, while supply may increase
slightly in September when profits are relatively substantial.
On the demand side, social electricity consumption data continued to grow in August, but after the summer gradually faded, the level of electricity consumption may fall.
In the automotive sector, although the sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high, the production of traditional vehicles was still greatly affected due to chip problems, and the outlook of the real estate and infrastructure sectors was negative, so the expectation of these adverse factors may gradually appear
in September and the following four quarters.
In terms of overseas demand, the current observation of LME inventory shows that its change direction is significantly different from that of China, indicating that the Delta variant has a certain impact on overseas demand, and this impact may still be difficult to eliminate
in the short term.
In summary, the supply side may gradually be more generous in September, while the outlook on the demand side is not very optimistic, but because the peak season demand that was suppressed due to high prices in the previous two quarters may be stimulated again after the price pullback, so overall, September is recommended to sell high and sell low for copper prices
.
