Pea farmers like to be happy, who will pay for it

Introduction: in recent years, China's feed industry has sprung up all over the country From the beginning to take off, it has made great strides forward It has gradually become an important industry in the industrial economy and an indispensable carrier of agricultural industrialization At present, the annual output value of feed industry has reached over 130 billion yuan, 100 times of that in 1980 There is no doubt that feed industry has become a new growth point of China's economy The influence of thn transgenic regulation on feed industry is indirect and far-reaching, and the most important one is the price of soybean meal In 2002, the genetically modified regulations made the upstream product soybean import of soybean meal stagnate The soybean import was only 11.32 million tons Compared with the previous years, it declined for the first time, 19% year-on-year The price of soybean meal also changed to bear state in the previous years, rising by nearly 50% Affected by this, the price of soybean meal rose by 40% all the way Above The genetically modified regulations have changed the supply and demand of soybean meal in China and the whole feed industry Thn first, at the beginning of the year, imported beans took the lead in filling the domestic oil extraction market After the rush buying upsurge of last autumn, the domestic soybean has exited the oil extraction market ahead of time in 2003 This has led to the expansion of soybean imports since March Due to various factors such as production and policies, China's demand for soybeans is extremely strong The purchase of American soybeans has continued from August last year to the beginning of April this year At present, China has imported 7.6 million tons of American soybeans, 3.4 million tons higher than the same period last year Before and after the Spring Festival, oil plants in the north of China have stopped purchasing domestic soybeans due to processing losses, which actually means that most of the domestic soybeans have been withdrawn from the oil extraction market since March this year, and the soybeans used for oil extraction are completely dependent on imported soybeans Therefore, from March to September, in order to meet the demand of oil extraction, the monthly soybean import volume in China will certainly be larger than that in previous years, and it is expected that the monthly import volume should be kept at the level of 1.5-1.7 million tons at least Only in this way can China's annual pressing demand of 24 million tons be met Second, the high price of soybeans has crushed small and medium-sized oil mills, and the supply of soybean meal has been greatly reduced The price of imported beans is constantly rising driven by domestic demand, and oil plants have stopped production or reduced production Some large oil plants produce in proper amount, with sufficient stock of raw materials Many small and medium-sized oil plants, especially those in the north which mainly squeeze domestic soybeans, can not get enough raw materials to stop production and wait and see With the warming of the weather, the domestic breeding industry began to enter the peak season of production, and the purchase of raw materials by feed manufacturers has begun to increase, which eventually exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand Thn in late March spot soybean meal launched another round of sharp rise At present, spot soybean meal has increased by 8% - 16% Driven by the sharp rise in the spot market, the futures price of soybean meal in Dalian also rose rapidly, with a cumulative increase of about 5% When the processing loss of imported soybean is the highest, it is close to 100 yuan / ton From January to March, the import of raw soybeans is mostly concentrated in East China and Shandong, while the import of Guangdong, the main soybean meal selling area, is less, which results in the shutdown of local oil plants in the first three months of this year The impact on the surrounding areas or markets is not only negative, but also positive Currently, the price of soybean meal in Guangdong is as high as 2300 yuan/ Ton, Guangdong soybean meal production reduction, further promote the domestic soybean meal supply decline, support the mainland soybean meal price rise Thn 3 is the recent increase in feed prices are mostly cost driven, not demand driven The change of commodity price is mainly affected by the relationship between supply and demand There are two reasons for the rise of price One is the increase of demand, which directly drives the price The other is that the supplier is forced to reduce production or stop production due to the increase of cost, which will also lead to the rise of price Since 2002, the feed market of our country has been affected by the decline of animal products export and the loss of breeding industry The demand growth of soybean meal is not as good as that of previous years The price rise is mainly due to the increase of soybean meal cost, which belongs to the cost driven increase The consequence of cost driven growth must be at the cost of small and medium-sized feed enterprises with weak vitality, which has been confirmed from the current loss of the whole feed industry The profit of thn feed industry mainly depends on the cost of raw materials, which is the relationship between the two If calculated on the basis of 24 million tons of crushing capacity in the whole year, the increase of soybean meal price due to the GM regulation will make the whole feed industry pay nearly 1.5 billion more costs The cost of thn is huge, not only in the number, but also in the feed industry After China's accession to the WTO, the "soybean war" between China and the United States made 300000 soybean farmers in China smile, while more than 1400 feed enterprises across the country appeared "too aggrieved".