Palm oil will rise again at the end of this year and the beginning of next year

Introduction: in November, the international palm oil market price went out of a wave of strong rising market Malaysia's spot price started from US $250 / ton (FOB) and rose to US $330 / ton (FOB), up to US $80 / ton The main reasons for the rising price of international palm oil market in November are as follows: 1 The quota of palm oil imported from Malaysia will increase significantly after China's accession to the WTO; 2 The export data of its and SGS in October and November show that: the purchase volume of EU and China has always remained at a high level; 3 After India's tariff reduction, the purchase volume has been enlarged; 4 India may raise The high soybean oil import valuation makes India's palm oil import expected to increase; 5 The United Nations wants to purchase a batch of palm oil from Pakistan to help Afghan refugees, which makes Pakistan's import volume soar in November; 6 According to Malaysia's minister of basic industry, the government will allow some people to import from December, because they have used up the duty-free quota of crude palm oil this year Starting to use next year's quota, this measure is expected to keep the export of crude palm oil strong; 7 In 2002, Malaysia allowed the export of duty-free crude palm oil to increase to 1.3 million tons; 8 Floods in some parts of Malaysia, which may have a certain impact on the production of palm oil India, Pakistan, EU and other major importing countries are now in a state of adjustment and digestion after the previous stage of centralized procurement; China's purchasing power is limited due to quota restrictions According to the data released by SGS, the growth rate of Malaysia's palm oil export from November 1 to 10, 1 to 15, 1 to 25 and 1 to 30 was 48.9%, 33.7%, 19.9% and 13.1% respectively, which indicated that the export was slowing down gradually Driven by the international market, the price of palm oil in domestic ports from south to North also rose in a wave At the end of November, the highest price of palm oil in all ports in the country reached 3900-4000 yuan / ton, about 250 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month At present, the quantity of goods arrived is less and the market demand is obviously insufficient It is expected that the next peak of consumption will be from the end of this year to the beginning of next year However, at that time, in addition to the arrival volume and port inventory, the factors affecting the market will be more concerned about the quota distribution next year As for the judgment of the medium and long-term trend, we need to wait until the policy is clear (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: