 Home > Food News > Food Articles > Outlook for 2022: After this year’s surge, cereal prices may fluctuate more sharply next year

Outlook for 2022: After this year’s surge, cereal prices may fluctuate more sharply next year

 Last Update: 2022-01-07
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

Tags

cost price

fertilizer crops

Search more information of high quality chemicals, good prices and reliable suppliers, visit www.echemi.com

Foreign media news on December 29: American farmers plan to plant more corn , soybeans and wheat in 2022 because the prices of these crops have soared in the past twelve months
.
However, due to the soaring price of chemical fertilizers, weather forecasts show that extreme weather is increasing, and China may slow down the pace of procurement , farmers will have to face problems in the coming year
.

In 2021, crop prices have hit multi-year highs one after another because they have been boosted by the surge in global demand and inflation
.
Affected by this, American farmers are expected to increase the planting area in 2022 in order to profit from rising prices
.

Research organization Escin Huamai predicts this month that the total planting area of soybeans, corn and wheat in the United States will reach 230 million acres in 2022, an increase of 2 million acres from the previous year's record high
.

But analysts predict that grain prices will fall in 2022 because global supply will catch up with demand
.
After hitting multi-year highs in May, crop prices have fallen, but they are still at their highest levels in eight years
.

So far this year, CBOT corn futures prices have risen by 25%, and wheat futures have risen by 27%
.
Soybean prices rose by more than 2%, the highest level since 2014
.

The expected increase in sown area will restrict the increase in crop prices
.
US analyst Jack Hanley said that crop inventories are expected to increase, which may suppress price trends
.
In addition, many factors may cause more severe price volatility in 2022
.
Among them, geopolitics may be the most important factor.
For example, the tension between China and the United States and the build-up of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border may bring uncertainty to global trade
.
Hanley said that if Russia attacked Ukraine as it did when it annexed Crimea in 2014, global wheat prices could soar
.
From February to March 2014, wheat prices rose by 75% due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture predicts that Russia will export 36 million tons of wheat in the 2021/22 season (beginning in September)
.
Ukraine's wheat exports may reach 24.
2 million tons
.

　　China's grain demand situation is also attracting attention
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture estimates that China's imports of corn, wheat and soybeans in the 2021/22 season will exceed 135 million tons
.
Mike Zuzoro, general manager of Global Commodity Analysis and Consulting, believes that China's commodity demand is closely related to China's economic growth
.
The Trump administration's trade agreement with China in 2020 is about to expire, but Sino-US trade relations are still thorny
.
Data from the Peterson Institute for Global Economics shows that China has not yet achieved the agricultural purchase targets set in the trade agreement
.
The US government said in October that it would maintain tariffs on Chinese products
.

　　Other factors may also weaken the ability of the United States to meet global demand for agricultural products, such as the disruption of the global supply chain and inflation that has increased the cost of production materials and agricultural machinery
.
The current bottleneck in the supply chain is mainly reflected in the price of fertilizers, which have tripled over the same period last year
.
Fitch said a month ago that rising prices of fertilizers will reduce the amount of fertilizer used, which in turn will reduce crop production
.

　　Among all these factors, the most important is the weather, which is also a mysterious force that farmers have to face every year
.
The La Niña phenomenon has taken shape
.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts this month that the La Niña phenomenon will continue into the northern hemisphere spring with a 60% chance
.
NOAA said the La Niña phenomenon could increase rainfall in major corn-producing areas such as Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri, while also causing dry weather in the south
.
The La Niña phenomenon will adversely affect the yield of crops and have caused sharp price fluctuations in the past year
.

U.
S.
corn soybean wheat prices China purchases

cereals

　　So far this year, CBOT corn futures prices have risen by 25%, and wheat futures have risen by 27%
.
Soybean prices rose by more than 2%, the highest level since 2014
.

This article is an English version of an article which is originally in the Chinese language on echemi.com and is provided for information purposes only. This website makes no representation or warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness ownership or reliability of the article or any translations thereof. If you have any concerns or complaints relating to the article, please send an email, providing a detailed description of the concern or complaint, to service@echemi.com. A staff member will contact you within 5 working days. Once verified, infringing content will be removed immediately.