Oil world analysis: the price of vegetable oil is good, and the market pressure of soybean meal is increasing

Introduction: from December 2001 to March next year, palm oil production and inventory in Southeast Asia will be greatly reduced The world vegetable oil inventory has fallen below the level of the same period last year, and it is estimated that the downward trend from January to September next year will intensify At present, the market of soybean and its products is still facing a lot of pressure Because of the considerable profits of soybean crushing, oil mills are attracted to squeeze more soybean However, due to the relatively low oil content of Soybean (only 17-18%), soybean processing must be increased to meet the demand of soybean oil, resulting in a sharp increase in the supply of soybean meal, which depresses the price of soybean meal 1、 Overview of world vegetable oil market last week: last week (as of December 7), the price of world vegetable oil rose more, recovering the previous week's price drop due to weak technology Last week, soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices in the European Union, the United States and other places rose sharply, but the trend of soybean meal was relatively weak In addition, the price of palm oil shipped in the far month increased significantly, recovering the land lost in the previous week; in recent weeks, due to the increase of demand and the decrease of inventory, the price of corn oil also increased significantly As of November 1, the inventory of corn oil in the United States was 65000 tons, compared with 117000 tons in the same period last year Some buyers have shifted their demand for sunflower oil to corn oil The prices of fish oil and fish meal have continued to rise due to the decrease in the export supply of major producing countries According to statistics, in November, Peru's fish catch dropped significantly, resulting in the failure of some export contracts for fish oil and fish meal In Chicago futures market, the price of soybean oil has been significantly higher than the low in October, and has been trading above the 30 day moving average However, in the past two weeks, the price of soybean meal has not been as good as expected, and is still hovering below the moving average Their basic situation determines their price trend This year, soybean oil demand is expected to increase by 10-11%, while soybean meal demand is expected to increase by 6%; soybean oil stocks will decrease by 8% by the end of September next year, while soybean meal will increase At present, the market of soybean and its products is still facing a lot of pressure Because of the considerable profits of soybean crushing, oil mills are attracted to squeeze more soybean However, the oil content of soybean is only 17-18% In order to meet the demand of soybean oil, soybean processing must be increased, resulting in a sharp increase in the supply of soybean meal, which depresses the price of soybean meal 2、 There are several main factors that determine the world vegetable oil price 1 In the next few weeks, the change of palm oil in Malaysia deserves attention Between October and March, the country's abnormally high palm oil production led to an inventory of 1.25 million tons by the end of March This year, palm oil production is significantly lower than the same period last year, and it is expected to drop to 750000 tons by the end of March next year, which will support the palm oil trend in the medium term 2 Recently, the weather in South America has improved, and soybean planting has been promoted Soybean production in South America is expected to increase substantially in early 2002 But for sunflower seeds and corn, good weather comes too late, and the actual planting area is estimated to be smaller than expected It has been reported that farmers in Argentina are considering planting double season sunflower seeds and corn, although unit yield is not expected to be high 3 Procurement demand in India, China and other countries is also a major determinant Last Friday, India raised the base import price of palm oil, because India's import tariff is calculated based on the base import price, so this news has a negative impact on Malaysia's recent palm oil exports However, in the medium term, India's procurement demand is expected to increase due to the decline of its vegetable oil storage and the fact that its domestic oil seed production is not as large as expected China's situation must also be closely watched At present, China's domestic economic growth is stable, supporting the increase of demand, and the decrease of rapeseed import leads to the insufficient supply of rapeseed oil In this way, the soybean crushing will expand correspondingly, and the demand for palm oil and other vegetable oil will also increase In addition, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, South Africa and Russia also have an impact on the supply and demand of world vegetable oil F8k (author:) to feed Weibo to: