October 21 aluminum market noon comment

International Aluminium Association (IAI): In September, global primary aluminum production increased by 1.
77%
year-on-year.
Overnight, Lun aluminum bottomed out and nearly turned red, opening higher at $
3,098 today.
Shanghai aluminum opened high and rose to close in Zhongyang overnight, closing at 23395.
Shanghai aluminum trading positions are rising, and the market sentiment is optimistic
.
The trend of Lun aluminum is stronger, Shanghai aluminum is under certain pressure from the policy trend weaker than Lun aluminum, short-term may be volatile, and the medium term may be driven by the external disk to continue to oscillate
upward.
Upper pressure 28000, lower support 23000
.

From late August to early September, Xinjiang, Guangxi and Yunnan successively introduced policies to reduce electrolytic aluminum production, Guangxi further increased in mid-September, Qinghai and Ningxia limited production in October, and then focused on the impact of the northern autumn and winter heating policy; Due to high electricity prices in Europe, Dutch electrolytic aluminum company Aldel suspended production until early
2022.

Domestic consumption is weak, and the operating rate of processing enterprises is low, which is a drag
on further increases.
Overall, short-term because of the sharp decline in energy prices, the profit taking of funds once caused the price of aluminum to fall sharply, but considering that the supply side contraction is still there, and the cost is rising, the price is too fast to kill the fall is a better opportunity to buy or increase positions, Shanghai aluminum focus on the following 2.
25-23,000 support; in the medium and long term, the supply side reduction is still likely to strengthen, Shanghai aluminum is expected to hit 25,000
before the end of the year.