October 2019 monthly sugar market supply and demand situation analysis: domestic sugar prices flat slightly higher

Domestic sugar prices were flat slightly higher, and international sugar prices stopped falling and rebounded.
, with the new sugar, imported sugar to supplement the market, the domestic sugar price is expected to run smoothly in the near future.
Internationally, a number of organizations raised the 2019/20 squeeze season global sugar production gap, medium- and long-term international sugar prices are expected to be good, in the short term the global sugar supply is still sufficient, it is expected that the near-term international sugar prices to run smoothly mainly.
(a) domestic sugar prices rose slightly flat.
, the average domestic sugar price was 5,889 yuan per ton, up 146 yuan, or 2.5 percent, month-on-month, and 580 yuan, or 10.9 percent, year-on-year.
domestic sugar prices flat slightly higher mainly due to the group and intermediary inventory further digestion, the beginning of the season new sugar supply is small, the market spot supply is tight.
(ii) International sugar prices stopped falling and rebounded.
October, the average international sugar price (ICE 11 raw sugar futures, the same as 12.46 cents) was 12.46 cents, up 1.34 cents, or 12.1 percent, from a year earlier, and 0.70 cents, or 5.3 percent, from a year earlier.
the main reasons for the rebound in international sugar prices were short-term replenishment, expectations of a shortage of sugar for the newly squeezed season, a stronger real and concerns about tight market supply.
(iii) the spread between domestic and foreign prices widened for four consecutive months.
October, Brazil's sugar-to-shore after-tax price of 15% of the quota was 3,366 yuan per ton, up 89 yuan, or 2.7%, from the previous month, 2,523 yuan lower than the domestic sugar price, and the spread was 57 yuan higher than the previous month.
brazilian sugar after-tax price of 50% tariff outside the import quota was 4,284 yuan per ton, up 117 yuan, or 2.8%, month-on-month, 1,605 yuan lower than the domestic sugar price and 29 yuan more than the previous month.
price of Brazilian sugar after-tax, which imposes a 35% safeguard tariff outside the tariff quota, is 5,202 yuan per ton, 688 yuan lower than the domestic sugar price, and the spread is 3 yuan higher than the previous month.
domestic and foreign spreads have widened for four months in a row, but this month the rate of widening slowed, mainly due to the sharp rise in international sugar prices and a slight increase in domestic sugar prices.
(iv) From January to September, sugar imports increased significantly.
, China imported 418.3 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 11.0% month-on-month and 1.2 times year-on-year.
January-September, China imported 2.3925 million tons of sugar, an increase of 22.3% YoY, and imports of US$805 million, an increase of 7.3% YoY.
the main sources of sugar imports from Brazil (42.9 per cent of total imports), Thailand (17.9 per cent) and Cuba (17.8 per cent).
(v) A number of organizations raised the global sugar production gap for the 2019/20 squeeze season.
On October 2nd GreenPool, an analyst, raised the global sugar demand gap for the 2019/20 squeeze season to 5.17m tonnes from a previous estimate of 3.67m tonnes.
October 14th, JPMorgan Chase forecast a shortfall of 6.4 million sugar production worldwide in the 2019/20 quarter, and sugar prices remained long-term.
(vi) it is expected that in the near future domestic and foreign sugar prices to run smoothly mainly.
, Xinjiang took the lead on September 10th, marking the start of the 2019/20 season.
present, beet sugar production is basically normal.
the main production areas of Guangxi and Yunnan have suffered adverse effects such as pests and droughts during the cultivation and growth of sugar cane, and the production of sugar cane in China is expected to decline steadily in the 2019/20 squeeze season.
domestic sugar prices rebounded for four consecutive months, with new sugar, imported sugar to the market supplement, it is expected that the near future domestic sugar prices to run smoothly mainly.
internationally, international sugar prices fell for the second consecutive quarter, at 12.4 cents a pound, down 0.3 cents, or 2.5 percent, from the previous quarter.
organizations recently raised the 2019/20 production demand gap, medium- and long-term international sugar prices are expected to be good, in the short term, the global sugar supply is still adequate.
expected the near future international sugar prices to run smoothly mainly.