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Overnight, thermal coal faced policy control and touched the drop limit, and Shanghai aluminum followed a sharp correction
.
The cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum has reached more than 20,000 yuan, and if the energy problem is not solved, the price of aluminum is difficult to reverse
.
However, the recent social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate, and weak consumption in the peak season limits the performance of aluminum prices, and the spot discount is more than
100 yuan.
In the short term, Shanghai aluminum has the risk of following large fluctuations in energy prices, mainly wait-and-see
.
At the macro level, the NDRC studied interventions on coal prices; The NDRC investigates the trading of thermal coal futures of Zhengshang Firm, strengthens supervision, and prevents malicious speculation; The LME is studying restrictions on copper contract spots, modifying lending rule rules and introducing a deferred delivery mechanism
.
In terms of fundamentals, SMM stocks on the 18th reported 928,000 tons, an increase of 41,000 tons from last Thursday; during the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 201,500 tons, an increase of 05,000 tons from last Thursday; September unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports were 492,000 tons, a slight increase of 2,000 tons, and exports increased steadily; imports of primary aluminum in August were 104,000 tons, down 75,000 tons
from the previous month.
Indonesia plans to stop bauxite exports, and in the first seven months of this year, China also imported nearly 12.
02 million tons of bauxite from Indonesia, accounting for 17%.
Henan Zhengzhou industrial power cut, aluminum industry three stop four; Aluminum prices continue to rise, trade market demand is sluggish, and discounts continue to expand
.
The sharp rise in coal prices encountered strong supervision, market sentiment was frustrated, while spot demand was poor, and the discount continued to expand, but the expectation of coal-fired power aluminum supply constraints still exists, it is recommended to wait for market sentiment and spot demand to stabilize, you can go long on the dip, short-term wait-and-see
.
