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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to rise
sharply.
In terms of macro, GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.
9 year-on-year, a sharp decline year-on-year; industrial added value, investment, and social zero data all fell sharply; U.
S
.
industrial output fell 1.
3 percent in September, the biggest decline since February.
In terms of fundamentals, domestic social stocks continued to increase slightly after the holiday, reaching 928,000 tons as of the 18th, an increase of 41,000 tons from last week, and the overall inventory continued to grow
in October.
On the supply side, after the National Day, it was reported that Qinghai and Ningxia began to reduce production, with a total reduction of about 70,000 to 80,000 tons per month
.
In terms of storage in the fourth quarter, the national reserve aluminum selling continued, and from the current domestic supply and demand situation, it is expected that the storage dumping has positive significance
to curb the upward trend of aluminum prices.
From the balance sheet, there is currently no big gap in the market in the fourth quarter, but it is still necessary to be vigilant against new production cuts in
the future.
Recently, affected by factors such as zinc production cuts and sharp increases in coal prices, funds have boosted the overall strength of the nonferrous sector
.
Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, but it is necessary to be wary of the risk
of price correction after the later sentiment pullback.
