October 11 Shanghai copper morning review

On the macro front, data released during November showed that China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 50.
4, less than the expected value of 50.
5, the ISM manufacturing index in the United States was 51.
5 in September, better than the expected value of 50.
3, and the US non-farm payrolls in September was 156,000, far below the expected value of 172,000
.
Fed funds rate futures now show that the probability of a Fed rate hike in December has increased to 64.
3% from 52.
7% before the holiday, and the Fed's expectation of a rate hike this year remains the biggest pressure
on the copper market.
In addition, 21 cities in China have intensively introduced property market purchase restrictions during the National Day holiday, and we pay attention to the impact of
real estate regulation on copper market demand.

In terms of market: on October 10, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at 130 yuan / ton - 180 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the trading price of flat water copper was 37660-37700 yuan / ton
.
During the festival, a large number of imported copper arrived into storage, resulting in the morning market holders generally using tentative quotations, holding more goods at high prices, small price differences between brands, and strong market wait-and-see sentiment
.
Most of the market is skeptical about the firm strength of spot premiums due to close delivery, waiting for delivery premiums to decline before entering the market
.

Inventories: As of September 30, the previous period of Shanghai copper stocks reported 107058 tons, a weekly decrease of 23,722 tons, a new low since the end of July last year, and far lower than the average inventory value of 229,000 tons during the year, indicating that the pressure on domestic inventories is much weaker than abroad
.

Overnight, the London copper shock strengthened, as the strong rise in crude oil drove the sentiment of the commodity market, and from the performance of copper on the first day after the holiday, the pressure brought by the domestic housing market's loan and purchase restriction policy was limited
.
Technically, copper futures effectively break upward, the probability of rising is enhanced, Shanghai copper 1612 contract can be backed above 37500 yuan, the entry reference is 37800 yuan, the target is 38500 yuan
.