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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum 2112 closed at 19195, up 240, LME aluminum closed at 2600, up 45; On the macro front, the Fed statement said it would start its tapering program later in November, and Powell said he would be patient with rate hikes but would act if necessary; The regulator is studying and launching relevant measures to further expand the opening up of the capital market, including expanding the opening of commodity and financial futures markets
.
In terms of macro, although the US index has a pullback, it is still at a high level, and the nonferrous metal as a whole is still under pressure
.
Fundamentally, the news of production cuts before and after the Winter Olympics in Mengxi region will be 1.
28-3.
13 next year, and about 350,000 tons of annualized production capacity will be affected
.
On the demand side, the downstream power rationing problem has been alleviated, and in addition to the primary aluminum alloy plate, the operating rate of other downstream processing sectors has rebounded
.
In terms of inventory, the current marginal production reduction on the supply side has weakened, and the market has begun to pay attention to the recovery of the demand side
.
If the destocking continues, aluminum prices will be helped by a strong rebound
.
Overseas spot cargo was tighter than domestic, and LME stocks fell by 3,675 tons to 1,000,400 tons
.
On the whole, there are new positive factors on the news this week, but aluminum prices still lack strong rebound support, short-term is still expected to be dominated by shock operation, and in the medium and long term, if the impact of the Winter Olympics and dual control of energy consumption expands, there is still a chance
to strengthen at the end of the year.
Strategically, it is expected to operate in oscillations between 18,000-20,000, with range operations dominating
.
