November 16 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

In terms of the market, there are no rumors of production cuts this week, but the dual control policy on energy consumption still has not been alleviated, and there is basically no hope of new investment and resumption of production within the year, and it is expected that the supply side will remain in short supply; On the consumer side, the downstream new orders have diverged to a certain extent, and the new orders of cable, strip and foil enterprises are good, and the order situation of building profiles and aluminum alloy enterprises is slightly weaker due to the difficulty of cash flow collection and the fermentation of chip problems, but overall, the continuous improvement of the impact of the power rationing policy has gradually made consumption gradually pick up, but the extent of improvement remains to be seen
.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a series of announcements indicating that the next stage of nonferrous industry carbon emission restriction policy, as far as the current situation is concerned, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity has continued to decline, and the weakening of real estate data in October has also stimulated market worries, and downstream consumption may be difficult to significantly improve; Coupled with the re-accumulation of the social library at the beginning of the week, short-term long and short intertwining has a strong suppression effect on aluminum prices, Shanghai aluminum or weak performance, focusing on the shock range of 1.
84-18,800; but in the long run, there are certain repair expectations in domestic fundamentals, superimposed on the introduction of Biden's trillion infrastructure bill, aluminum prices still have the possibility
of rebounding.