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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed the non-ferrous metal sector to continue this week's strong volatility
.
New investment and resumption of production capacity are progressing smoothly, downstream seasonally weakening, and inventories continue to increase by nearly 20,000 tons
at the beginning of the week.
However, at present, the inventory level is at a low level and the deliverable warehouse list is tight, and the support for aluminum prices is still there, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots remains above
100 yuan.
In the short term, pay attention to whether Shanghai aluminum can break through the previous high, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or short-term operation
.
In terms of inventory, the latest inventory of LME aluminum was 1,585,000 tons, down 5,550 tons from the previous trading day; The aluminum warehouse receipt of the previous period was 144403 tons, down 1398 tons
from the previous trading day.
In terms of spot, the mainstream spot trading price in Shanghai, Wuxi and Hangzhou markets is concentrated between 14620-14660 yuan / ton, and the spot price rises 80-120 yuan / ton
.
In terms of news, Hydro's Brazilian Paragominas bauxite bauxite mine ore transmission pipeline suspended maintenance, is expected to resume use within two months, the maintenance will affect the Alunorte alumina plant production reduction, the magnitude is expected to reach 35-45% of the total annual production capacity, according to 6.
3 million tons of capacity accounting, the monthly impact is about 28.
9-342,000 tons
.
The dollar weakened again yesterday, with nonferrous varieties led by copper performing strongly, with Shanghai aluminum recording more than 1%
gains.
The profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained high, but in July and August, the new production capacity was limited and the output increase was not much
.
In terms of demand, the operating rate of profiles is relatively stable, the operating rate of cable-related aluminum products has declined, and the inventory has entered the accumulation cycle, and Shanghai aluminum is mainly
based on the 20 moving average oscillation.
From a medium-term perspective, the cumulative production capacity in May and June was 425,000 tons, resulting in the production of July and August being difficult to cope with the demand of the next peak season, and the overall idea was more
.
