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Last week, the trend of non-ferrous metals in the futures market diverged, aluminum prices followed the low of aluminum to recover, midstream shipments were active, and downstream on-demand procurement was the mainstay
.
The long-term rally of London aluminum remained, and the week was strong higher to an important resistance area, watch for the performance
here.
Shanghai aluminum rose strongly during the week, but faced an important resistance area in the early stage, pay attention to the decline here
.
Aluminum prices are strong, on the one hand, the southwest region of China due to power supply problems smelting production restrictions upgrade, the future supply and demand gap is expected to expand, on the other hand, overseas Rio Tinto's smelters due to labor problems to close production capacity, so that overseas also face the problem of tight supply, spot premiums are rising rapidly, which has a certain driving effect
on China.
Mid-week aluminum ingot stocks continued to decline, with weekly destocking of 5.
1 to 758,000 tons, exceeding expectations, mainly because transportation in Henan has not fully recovered and arrivals in East China have decreased
.
From the perspective of consumption, the production of processing enterprises in Henan has recovered relatively quickly, basically returning to the normal level, and in terms of sectors, the off-season consumption of construction and automobile-related demand is obvious, while the cable and packaging field maintains stable demand
.
On the supply side, Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou due to power supply problems, the scale of production restrictions has expanded, aggravating the gap between domestic supply and demand, at the same time, the closure of overseas smelters has made overseas supply tighter, the import window is briefly opened and then closed, and the replenishment of import sources may not be as expected
.
Recently, due to the impact of power supply and floods, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has been continuously damaged, even under the regulation of storage, the gap between supply and demand is still expanding, and the support of fundamentals is very solid
.
Points that need to be vigilant: First, the rapid destocking situation in the past two weeks is to a certain extent related to the obstruction of transportation, and after the transportation gradually returns to normal, the possible concentrated arrival phenomenon leads to an increase in inventory, causing a certain correction in aluminum prices; Second, the domestic epidemic has spread, and the uncertainty of demand and sentiment has increased, which may have a certain impact
on prices.
On the whole, the limited domestic supply under the background of dual carbon is the core logic supporting aluminum prices, and there are short-term inventory changes and sentiment impacts, but the overall high operation of aluminum prices has not changed
.