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This week, the trend of non-ferrous metals in the futures market is differentiated, and after a slight adjustment, it is higher again, with active midstream shipments and downstream on-demand procurement
.
Shanghai aluminum faces the area of the previous high, and this week it has been slightly hindered to adjust, pay attention to the situation
here.
The long-term rally of London aluminum holds, slightly blocked in the resistance area this week, watch the performance
here.
On the supply side, domestic production in July 2021 was 3.
279 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%.
In August, the power rationing in Yunnan and Guangxi was upgraded, and the proportion of electrolytic aluminum load reduction increased, and the average daily output in August may be slightly lower than in
July.
In terms of imports, imports in June were 150,000 tons, exceeding expectations, but there was still no inventory accumulation, and domestic consumption capacity was good
.
The southwest power rationing was upgraded, and the resumption of production in Yunnan was delayed by at least 2 months, and the annual output continued to be lowered to 39.
32 million tons
.
On the demand side, power cuts once again affected Henan and Southwest processing, and the operating rate decreased slightly month-on-month, but the operating rate remained at a
high position.
In terms of inventory, social stocks fell by 26,000 tons month-on-month to 732,000 tons, with factors such as poor transportation, and later with the arrival of goods, destocking will decline
.
Overall, the market has digested the Politburo meeting last week to ensure supply and price stability, and the improvement of US employment data has triggered expectations of tightening liquidity, but the epidemic has repeatedly expected that US monetary policy will exit cautiously, which will not have a direct negative impact
on the market.
Yunnan began to expand production from 25% to 30% last week, and Guangxi joined in to impose a 30% production limit on August 15, with annual supply cut or below 39.
32 million tons
.
In terms of consumption, August will enter a bottoming state, it will not be too bad, and the inventory in the peak season from September to November will go to a low level of 700,000 tons, which is still positive
for the price push.
The short-term entry of Guangxi and the implementation of production restrictions in Yunnan will provide impetus
for aluminum prices to break through the 20,000 yuan / ton mark.
