Ningxia Purple Light Trial Production: Whether the methionine market is entering a turning point

in September 2012, Chongqing Ziguang Chemical Co., Ltdin Ningxia Zhongwei put into operation 100,000 tons of methionine production plant, the end of November 2014 Ningxia Ziguang factory trial production, a small number of products recently supply old customers, is expected to gradually increase production in December, but the actual output is lowvub
Chongqing zimused methionine plant in late 2013 due to environmental problems stopped production, no longer supply domestic, although Nanjing Andisu official production, but the domestic methionine supply mainly rely on importsDue to the lack of foreign manufacturers on the domestic supply of the lack of problems in the United States methionine raw material factory, methionine prices from the beginning of August, there is a upward trend, to the end of October, individual regional market prices as high as 120 yuan / kgvub
Entering November, the price of methionine showed signs of decline, traders worried about market collapse, price reduction selling, the current market price of individual regions reached 45 yuan / kg or so, according to customs data, methionine supply is tight, but reached a historical high of 120 yuan / kg, there is speculation, after the price of methionine dive, the price of most of the region is still falling, plus Ningxia Purple Light test production, supply increased, the methionine market has entered a delicate periodvub
vub, supplyvubChina methionine mainly imports, according to customs data, From January to October 2014, China's methionine imports of 1235 million tons, down 11.37% YoY;vub
Among vubimports, Evonik occupies the main market share, accounting for 49% from January-October total methionine imports, down 18.33% YoY; vub
　　Prior to December, only Nanjing Andisu provided liquid methionine, in June to achieve exports, but from August to the end of September to stop production and maintenance, October production of less than 3000 tons, current full production, the average monthly output of 5000 tons, the average monthly export of 1232 tons (July-October average export volume) vub
　　From the above, it can be seen that the average monthly domestic supply is slightly less than 14,000 tons, Evonik dominates the domestic market, and the reduction of its methionine supply is the main factor leading to domestic supply constraints vub
Vub II, demand situation vub global demand of 970,000 tons in 2013, domestic demand of 184,000 tons, global demand of 800,000 tons in 2010, domestic demand of 153,000 tons, cadrated annual growth rate of 4.7% The average monthly domestic demand is 161,000 tons vub
　　Overall this year, the aquaculture industry is depressed, the growth rate of methionine demand should be slightly less than 4.7%, but in the third quarter of 2014, the efficiency of poultry farming improved, accelerated the consumption of methionine, into the fourth quarter, poultry farming depression, vegetable prices fell, some feed plants increased the amount of vegetable meal consumption to reduce methionine addition, reduce costs, demand has weakened, conservative estimate of monthly need sythnonine 1.4-15 million tons vub
　　Third, the future trend of methionine vub according to supply and demand data can be seen, in the short term the market supply will still be slightly below market demand, due to the Approaching Spring Festival, downstream user inventory is low, the market purchase and sale will increase; Basically reached the balance of supply and demand, the current traders continue to reduce prices to sell goods, and manufacturers to large end customers to maintain normal supply and quotations, in 39-42 yuan / kg, small and medium-sized customers in 43-45 yuan / kg, Evonik on traders a small amount of supply, the price has increased The price of methionine is expected to rebound slightly in the near future and then stabilize, with prices ranging from 47 to 60 vub
　　In the long run, Ningxia Ziguang Phase I (50,000 tons of production capacity production line) is basically completed, Chongqing plant in maintenance, the future is likely to resume production, Evonik U.S plant in the second quarter of 2015 is expected to return to normal supply, and Singapore 150,000 tons of methionine plant in November 2014 successfully started, Sijie Malaysia 80,000 tons of fermented methionine plant construction has been completed, is expected to win Win The methionine of the Singapore and Hija Malaysia plants will be supplied domestically in the first quarter of 2015, the Sumitomo plant in Dalian will start exporting methionine raw intermediates in 2013 and, according to previous reports, will produce methionine in 2015, and the global production capacity is expected to reach more than 1.6 million tons in 2015, when the market for methionine is likely to break the balance and prices will fall vub vub in September 2012 Chongqing Ziguang Chemical Co., Ltd in Ningxia Zhongwei put into operation 100,000 tons of methionine production plant, the end of November 2014 Ningxia Ziguang factory trial production, a small number of products recently supply old customers, is expected to gradually increase production in December, but the actual output is lower vub
　　Chongqing zimused methionine plant in late 2013 due to environmental problems stopped production, no longer supply domestic, although Nanjing Andisu official production, but the domestic methionine supply mainly rely on imports Due to the lack of foreign manufacturers on the domestic supply of the lack of problems in the United States methionine raw material factory, methionine prices from the beginning of August, there is a upward trend, to the end of October, individual regional market prices as high as 120 yuan / kg vub
　　Entering November, the price of methionine showed signs of decline, traders worried about market collapse, price reduction selling, the current market price of individual regions reached 45 yuan / kg or so, according to customs data, methionine supply is tight, but reached a historical high of 120 yuan / kg, there is speculation, after the price of methionine dive, the price of most of the region is still falling, plus Ningxia Purple Light test production, supply increased, the methionine market has entered a delicate period vub
vub , supply vub China methionine mainly imports, according to customs data, From January to October 2014, China's methionine imports of 1235 million tons, down 11.37% YoY; vub
Among vub imports, Evonik occupies the main market share, accounting for 49% from January-October total methionine imports, down 18.33% YoY; vub
　　Prior to December, only Nanjing Andisu provided liquid methionine, in June to achieve exports, but from August to the end of September to stop production and maintenance, October production of less than 3000 tons, current full production, the average monthly output of 5000 tons, the average monthly export of 1232 tons (July-October average export volume) vub
　　From the above, it can be seen that the average monthly domestic supply is slightly less than 14,000 tons, Evonik dominates the domestic market, and the reduction of its methionine supply is the main factor leading to domestic supply constraints vub
Vub II, demand situation vub global demand of 970,000 tons in 2013, domestic demand of 184,000 tons, global demand of 800,000 tons in 2010, domestic demand of 153,000 tons, cadrated annual growth rate of 4.7% The average monthly domestic demand is 161,000 tons vub
　　Overall this year, the aquaculture industry is depressed, the growth rate of methionine demand should be slightly less than 4.7%, but in the third quarter of 2014, the efficiency of poultry farming improved, accelerated the consumption of methionine, into the fourth quarter, poultry farming depression, vegetable prices fell, some feed plants increased the amount of vegetable meal consumption to reduce methionine addition, reduce costs, demand has weakened, conservative estimate of monthly need sythnonine 1.4-15 million tons vub
　　Third, the future trend of methionine vub according to supply and demand data can be seen, in the short term the market supply will still be slightly below market demand, due to the Approaching Spring Festival, downstream user inventory is low, the market purchase and sale will increase; Basically reached the balance of supply and demand, the current traders continue to reduce prices to sell goods, and manufacturers to large end customers to maintain normal supply and quotations, in 39-42 yuan / kg, small and medium-sized customers in 43-45 yuan / kg, Evonik on traders a small amount of supply, the price has increased The price of methionine is expected to rebound slightly in the near future and then stabilize, with prices ranging from 47 to 60 vub
　　In the long run, Ningxia Ziguang Phase I (50,000 tons of production capacity production line) is basically completed, Chongqing plant in maintenance, the future is likely to resume production, Evonik U.S plant in the second quarter of 2015 is expected to return to normal supply, and Singapore 150,000 tons of methionine plant in November 2014 successfully started, Sijie Malaysia 80,000 tons of fermented methionine plant construction has been completed, is expected to win Win The methionine of the Singapore and Hija Malaysia plants will be supplied domestically in the first quarter of 2015, the Sumitomo plant in Dalian will start exporting methionine raw intermediates in 2013 and, according to previous reports, will produce methionine in 2015, and the global production capacity is expected to reach more than 1.6 million tons in 2015, when the market for methionine is likely to break the balance and prices will fall vub vub shared on twitter