New vaccine force shakes the old pattern of the market

Novartis, whichto buy Chiron, the second-largest u.Ssupplier of flu vaccines, recently announced that it would be able to supply 50 percent of its planned flu-season flu vaccine by the end of September, up 30 percent from the previous oneNovartis's position in the flu vaccine market will be strengthened with the launch of the company's cell culture vaccine, Optaflu, in Europe and the upcoming submission of applications for the adjoric izedvaccine Fluad in the United StatesIn recent years, under the threat of an outbreak of influenza virus of H
5N
1, influenza has attracted widespread and high concern in human society, and people's awareness of influenza and its complications is gradually increasingSince effective influenza vaccination is an effective means of rapidly establishing a population immunization barrier to stop the spread of influenza pandemics and reduce and reduce their harm, health experts around the world hope to achieve effective prevention by introducing a wide range of seasonal vaccines to the entire communityEpidemic: Demand for vaccines has increasedin 2005, the global market for influenza vaccines reached $1.6 billion, and in 2006 it soared to $2.2 billionIt is predicted that the growth trend of the market will continue in the next few yearsAccording to a separate report by Datamonitor, the flu vaccine market is likely to exceed $3 billion by 2010 in the seven major markets aloneAnd for such a huge potential market, pharmaceutical companies are naturally eager to try - either to increase research and development, or to expand their production capacity, in order to tap into the potential of the flu vaccine marketNovartis is one of themNovartis Corp., the second-largest U.S supplier of flu vaccines, plans to produce about 40 million doses of fluvirin vaccine for distribution in the United States during the upcoming 2007-2008 flu season Novartis's supply increased by 30% compared with the previous flu season With the previous launch of the company's cell culture vaccine "Optaflu" in Europe, as well as the application of the adjoric vaccine "Fluad" in the United States is about to be submitted, the increase in the supply of "Fluvirin" vaccine is undoubtedly Novartis's latest move in the field of vaccines, which is bound to further strengthen and consolidate the company's position in the influenza vaccine market, its future development is not small As a leader in this field, the United States has begun to widely vaccinate against influenza in some populations, including children aged 6 to 59 months
, chronic disease
patients, pregnant , health care health care workers, and people over 50 years of age and older, and people who have been in contact with all high-risk groups in the 2006-2007 flu season, their vaccination will increase the dose of influenza vaccine in the United States to 218 million doses Expanded production: High-risk issues highlight influenza prevention and control areas, although the demand is huge, but the current supply of influenza vaccine is extremely limited The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that global influenza vaccine production in 2006 was about 350 million doses, an annual growth rate of only 8 per cent compared with 2000 and 2004 The United States has tried to change the situation in response to a shortage of flu vaccines Prior to 2005, there were only three suppliers in the United States, Sanofi-Avant (now Sanofi-Avant), Chiron and Med Immune of the United States, which together provided 87 million doses of vaccines during the 2003-2004 flu season However, in 2004, Chiron's plant in Liverpool, England, was heavily polluted, which had a significant impact on its vaccine delivery to the U.S market, which was only 61 million doses of flu vaccine Since then, U.S authorities have taken aggressive incentives for vaccine manufacturers, such as the FDA's rapid approval of GlaxoSmithKline's flu vaccine to market, in an effort to stabilize the country's flu supply by increasing producers In a series of efforts, the U.S flu vaccine supply has been steadily raised, in the 2005-2006 flu season, the total supply reached 86 million doses, and in the 2006-2007 flu season as many as 118 million doses Although the availability of influenza vaccines has been rising and rising, the number can only meet 50% of the target population On the one hand, there is a shortage of supply, on the other hand it is the surplus used While the government's demand for vaccinations is growing, and the distribution of flu vaccines in the United States has been increasing year by year over the past decade, the actual number of vaccinations has always been below the supply In the 2006-2007 flu season, 20 million doses of 118 million doses of influenza vaccine were not used One of the most important reasons is that, since the prevalence of influenza vaccines is not widespread and comprehensive enough among the majority of target populations, the lack of awareness is particularly acute in the category of people who pregnant women and have contact with high-risk groups The uneven cognitive awareness of influenza vaccination by clinicians is also an important factor affecting the development of their market In addition, as the virus continues to evolve, the composition of seasonal influenza vaccines must undergo some adjustment and improvement each year, and the unused vaccine at the end of each flu season will no longer be useful, which requires manufacturers to develop and produce large numbers of vaccines in a timely manner to respond to a possible pandemic For example, the WHO unveiled the latest strain of the flu virus in February, and manufacturers will have to develop and produce an effective vaccine in just six months to withstand a possible large-scale outbreak during the October flu season At this stage, however, the production of influenza vaccine still relies on the traditional old technical means - chicken embryo culture preparation, the incubation cycle is very slow, and not easy to control yield Because the production of influenza vaccine in chicken embryos requires a large amount of SPF-grade chicken embryos, it is difficult to expand production In addition, many of the problems are unavoidable For example, in determining the type of new influenza strain and the available vaccine, there is a considerable delay, and mass production is six to nine months, the slow production process is bound to delay the best time to control the outbreak As a result, the determination of the type and demand for influenza vaccine production is often projected at the beginning of the year and then put spent more time on research and development and production Despite all the above factors, the huge development potential and prospects of the influenza vaccine market still encourage manufacturers willing to risk commercial failure and put into it year after year In terms of technological innovation, WHO, the U.S government and others are also encouraging the development of cell culture technology to replace the current chicken embryo culture technology to produce influenza vaccine It is projected that in the future, the capacity of new production technologies, particularly those based on cell culture, will probably account for 15 per cent of the total production capacity Demand doubts: Novartis is under pressure driven by the need to meet demand, not long after Novartis announced that it would produce 40 million doses of fluvirin vaccine for distribution in the United States during the upcoming 2007-2008 flu season, a 30 percent increase over the previous flu season Novartis's rise in the flu vaccine market has largely relied on acquisitions of Chiron in the United States " During the 2006-2007 flu season, Sanofi-Pasteur supplied 50 million doses of influenza vaccine in the United States and GlaxoSmithKline with 25 million doses In this flu season, Novartis plans to increase its supply of 'Fluvirin' in the U.S market by 30 percent, which will bring Novartis close to Sanofi-Pasteur's supply level and distance itself from GlaxoSmithKline Hedwig Kresse, a drug analyst at Datamonitor's infectious disease , commented Still, there is debate about whether Novartis will be able to expand production to the expected 40million doses Each year, as the virus evolves, the composition of seasonal influenza vaccines must be adjusted and improved, and the requirements for vaccine development must be short-lived, timely applications, and production to respond to a large-scale outbreak of influenza In addition, many factors will also have a significant impact on the production of vaccines, such as government vaccination targets, whether the vaccine can be used effectively, if these factors can be artificially controlled, then some unpredictable factors, such as the human subjective prediction of the next season of possible outbreak of the virus strain, and vaccination season will determine to some extent the vaccine production and future market development Under the influence of all these knowable and agnostic factors, Novartis is under pressure to expand production smoothly But once the planned expansion of supply is confirmed, Novartis's increase in its U.S flu vaccine supply will bring its commercial success in the field One possible approach would be to use new and fast-producing technologies and to complete the distribution of vaccines ahead of their competitors In fact, Novartis has announced that it will be able to provide 50 per cent of its "Fluvirin" vaccine for the next flu season by the end of September, while the rest will be delivered by the end of October, leaving enough room for competition for its other two main rivals, Sanofi Pasteur and GlaxoSmithKline From this point of view, in this year's flu season, the flu vaccine market "three-country play" has become inevitable Multiple strategies: restructuring the market pattern
see the development potential of the influenza vaccine market, Novartis has invested in a variety of actions, quite a stable winning ticket The increase in the availability of the Fluvirin vaccine is not the only strategy in the flu vaccine market, and in June 2007 the European Union approved the listing of the company's seasonal flu vaccine, Optaflu Optaflu is the world's first vaccine produced by a of cell-
, which can rapidly expand production capacity to respond to a pandemic The launch of Optaflu marks one of the most significant innovations in the 50-year history of influenza vaccine production Novartis expects Optaflu to be available in Germany and Australia as the winter flu season approaches, and to sell it in other EU countries when the flu approaches in 2008-09 In addition, Novartis has invested $600m in vaccine production plants in Holly Springs and North Carolina, mainly for the production of Optaflu, in the future, as optaflu will need to expand production further when it goes public in the U.S In addition, novartis plans to submit a listing application for fluad, an adjuvant vaccine, to the U.S FDA to strengthen its position in the flu vaccine market Developed primarily for the elderly, "Fluad" contains a water-wrapped emulsion MF
59
, which was first approved in Italy in 1997 and is now available in most European countries and is in good use Applications for listing in the U.S are expected to be submitted by the end of this year (Special Contributor Guo Wen)