New study confirms new crown has flu-like seasonal characteristics

A key question about the new coronavirus is whether it will become a seasonal virus like the flu, or will it spread equally at any time of the year? This has important implications for interventions

The first theoretical modelling study suggests that climate is not the driver of COVID-19 transmission, however, some observations suggest that the initial spread of COVID-19 is between 30 and 50 degrees north latitude, with transmission conditions of low humidity and low temperature (at 5 to 11 degrees Celsius)

In order to understand whether the new coronavirus is a seasonal virus, the research team first analyzed the relationship between the temperature and humidity at the initial stage of the spread of the new coronavirus in 162 countries on five continents before the implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures

The team then analyzed how this link between climate and disease changed over time, and whether the link was consistent across different geographic scales

In Europe, the first wave weakened as temperature and humidity rose, and the second wave rose as temperature and humidity fell

The same negative correlation was observed when analysing the transient correlation across all scales in southern hemisphere countries where the virus arrived later

Studies have shown that incorporating temperature into transmission rates can better predict the rise and fall of different waves (outbreaks)

The link underscores the importance of air hygiene and the need to incorporate meteorological parameters when assessing and planning prevention and control measures, said study coordinator Xavier Rodo, director of the Climate and Health Program at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health