Natural rubber is still in an upward trend in the medium and long term

From the supply side, the output of new rubber in the main producing areas at home and abroad showed a seasonal increase
.
According to the calendar data released by ANRPC, the output of natural rubber at home and abroad fell to the lowest level of the year from March to April due to the suspension period, and gradually increased with the development of rubber tapping operations in production areas since May, and reached the highest level
in August and September.

This year, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic and dry weather, the cutting time of many production areas has been delayed, and the output of new rubber has only gradually increased since June, but due to the shortage of glue workers and the impact of sporadic rainfall in the production area, there is still a certain gap
between the output of new rubber and the past few years.
Domestic production areas are also affected by the new crown epidemic and dry weather, especially the Yunnan production area has experienced a more serious drought in the regular harvesting season for the second consecutive year, which has also caused the new round of rubber tapping to be delayed by nearly two months compared with previous years
.
However, after the start of the rubber tapping operation, the domestic new rubber output has shown a more obvious seasonal increase, and the monthly output has basically returned to the usual level
of previous years.

From the perspective of consumption, the foreign trade market continues to improve to support tire demand performance
.
After entering August, the tire foreign trade market that had not been recovered before showed a significant recovery, and the backlog of orders in the early stage was concentrated and delivered to basically restore tire exports to the normal level of previous years, which also formed a greater support
for the overall sales of tires.
At the same time, in the other two markets, the supporting market continued the good performance of the previous period, while the replacement market performed generally, although there were various promotional policies, but the actual shipments were relatively flat, and the agent inventory pressure was greater
.
In addition to the improvement of the tire market itself, external factors such as high temperature power rationing and typhoons that are common in summer in previous years are rare, which makes the continuity of rotation enterprises strong, and the overall level is at a high level
.

At the same time, as another important area of downstream demand for rubber, the automotive market has also shown a more obvious recovery trend in recent months
.
According to the latest economic operation of the domestic automobile industry released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales situation of the automobile market in July was generally stable, and the production and sales volume in that month decreased slightly month-on-month, and continued to maintain year-on-year growth, of which the year-on-year growth rate of commercial vehicles was still obvious
.
Moreover, the momentum of the domestic car market in July "off-season" continued to August
.
According to the China Passenger Car Association, retail sales in the domestic passenger car market in August are expected to reach 1.
69 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8%.

In addition, the current inventory of Tianjiao warehouse receipts continues to be at the low level
of the same period.
Due to the impact of the new crown epidemic and dry weather in domestic production areas this year, the cutting time was generally delayed by nearly two months compared with previous years, which led to a limited amount of rubber available for registration as a futures standard warehouse receipt this year, and low inventory provided strong support
for natural rubber.

In the short term, although the domestic tire and automobile markets continued to pick up momentum and rubber demand performed better, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory remained at a low level in the past four years, rubber prices were strongly supported, but under the influence of the seasonal increase in the supply of new rubber and the imminent issuance of Yunnan replacement planting indicators, natural rubber is still facing certain pullback pressure
.

In the medium and long term, the annual domestic new rubber output will decline due to the shortening of the rubber tapping time, while the demand side is expected to maintain a growth momentum with the economic recovery, and the contradiction between the supply and demand of natural rubber will be significantly improved
in the later period.
At the same time, after the centralized cancellation of the old rubber warehouse receipt in November, if the new warehouse receipt is not replenished in time, the inventory of natural rubber warehouse receipt will fall sharply to a low level of more than 7 years, and the rubber futures price is expected to receive stronger support
.
Therefore, in the medium and long term, rubber prices will continue to rise
.