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National Australia Bank said on Wednesday it had cut its thermal coal price forecast
for the coming months due to uncertainty over China's trade policies.
"Chinese thermal coal buyers are reportedly turning to other suppliers, with delays in customs clearance of Australian coal by Dalian Port Group extended in recent weeks," National Australia Bank said
in its monthly Minerals and Energy Outlook.
For 2019, the bank has cut its forecast for the Australian benchmark price by 7% to $88/mt (FOB Newcastle).
The bank said it cut its forecast for April-June by 12% to $82/mt, July-September by 13% to $85/mt and October-December by 5% to $90/mt
.
Meanwhile, the bank has kept its forecasts for the four quarters of 2020 unchanged at $93/mt, $90/mt, $88/mt and $90/mt
.
"While the Australian benchmark price is suppressed in the short term, the recovery in normal trading is likely to rise
again in the coming months," the bank said.
China's prolonged trade disruptions pose downside risks
to this forecast.
”
Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a research note on Friday that Australian coal is estimated to take up to three months
to clear customs in China.
"As a result, traders and importers are not interested in
buying Australian coal.
"
National Australia Bank said on Wednesday it had cut its thermal coal price forecast
for the coming months due to uncertainty over China's trade policies.
"Chinese thermal coal buyers are reportedly turning to other suppliers, with delays in customs clearance of Australian coal by Dalian Port Group extended in recent weeks," National Australia Bank said
in its monthly Minerals and Energy Outlook.
For 2019, the bank has cut its forecast for the Australian benchmark price by 7% to $88/mt (FOB Newcastle).
The bank said it cut its forecast for April-June by 12% to $82/mt, July-September by 13% to $85/mt and October-December by 5% to $90/mt
.
Meanwhile, the bank has kept its forecasts for the four quarters of 2020 unchanged at $93/mt, $90/mt, $88/mt and $90/mt
.
"While the Australian benchmark price is suppressed in the short term, the recovery in normal trading is likely to rise
again in the coming months," the bank said.
China's prolonged trade disruptions pose downside risks
to this forecast.
”
Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a research note on Friday that Australian coal is estimated to take up to three months
to clear customs in China.
"As a result, traders and importers are not interested in
buying Australian coal.
"
