my country's demand for refined oil picks up in 2021

Specifically, starting from 2021, my country will implement the third three-year subsidy implementation plan for agricultural machinery, and the scope of subsidies will be further expanded.
In 2015, the peak sales of agricultural machinery and tools will also enter the renewal period.
Agricultural mechanization will develop in a full and comprehensive direction.
It is expected that agricultural oil consumption will increase slightly by 1.
5% in 2021.
The growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to pick up, and the growth rate of real estate investment declined steadily.
The number and duration of construction machinery construction for projects under construction and new key projects will both increase compared to 2020.
It is expected that construction oil consumption in 2021 will increase by 7.
1% over the previous year.
The demand for logistics and transportation of construction materials and industrial products has grown steadily.
Since the epidemic, the increase in residents' demand for e-commerce express delivery will continue to increase the demand for logistics and transportation of consumer goods.
The turnover of road freight is expected to be about 8%.
It is expected that road logistics will use oil compared with the previous year.
An increase of 2.
8%.
The capacity utilization rate of each major production industry is expected to show a trend of high and low after the change in total social demand.
In addition, the replacement of LNG (liquefied natural gas) is increasing.
It is expected that the oil consumption of the production industry in 2021 will decrease by 5% compared with the previous year.
Affected by the epidemic, the waterway passenger transportation difficulties in the first half of the year have been significantly improved, and the good external demand has driven the growth of inland water freight demand.
The demand for water transportation diesel is expected to increase by 3.
4% over the previous year.
The oil consumption for commercial and civil use and power generation has shown a long-term downward trend.
It is estimated that the apparent consumption of diesel in 2021 will be 160 million tons, an increase of 2.
4% over the previous year and an increase of 1.
3% over 2019.

Based on the quarterly consumption characteristics of diesel over the years and the forecast of quarterly economic growth in 2021, diesel consumption is expected to be 36.
39 million tons in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 22.
2%.
During the Spring Festival, many places advocate or require the New Year on the spot, and some coastal provinces do not stop during the Spring Festival.
The increase in industrial capacity utilization and the increase in road logistics and transportation will not only offset the decline in diesel consumption in Hebei, Heilongjiang, Jilin and other provinces, but also slightly increase diesel consumption in the first quarter.
Diesel consumption is expected to be 39.
8 million tons in the second quarter, down 1.
2% year-on-year.
Diesel consumption in the second quarter entered the peak season, and the average daily consumption is expected to increase by 41,000 tons compared with the first quarter.
In terms of different industries, oil consumption in agriculture, construction and industrial production is expected to increase year-on-year, but demand for road logistics is expected to decline year-on-year.
In the second quarter of last year, due to the implementation of the highway toll-free policy in April and the low level of diesel prices, the number of diesel vehicles on the roads increased; there is no policy stimulus this year, and it is expected that diesel consumption in highway logistics will decrease year-on-year, thereby pulling down The overall diesel consumption growth rate in the second quarter.
It is estimated that the diesel consumption in the third quarter will reach 42.
2 million tons, reaching the highest peak of diesel consumption in the whole year, and the average daily consumption will increase by 21,000 tons compared with the second quarter.
Due to the accelerated economic recovery in the third quarter of last year, the base of diesel consumption was relatively high, with a year-on-year increase of 5.
6%.
The demand for diesel in the third quarter is expected to fall by 5.
2% year-on-year.
Diesel consumption in the fourth quarter is expected to be 41.
2 million tons, the same year-on-year.
In the fourth quarter, the economic growth rate continued to decline, the demand for diesel fuel lacked an effective drive, and the use of oil for industrial production and construction decreased, and at the same time, the demand for diesel for highway logistics was lowered.
The average daily diesel consumption in the fourth quarter is expected to drop by 11,000 tons from the previous quarter.