MTBE: High stable or mainstream

　　In June, the methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) market rose, and the average spot price exceeded 8,500 yuan (ton price, the same below), rising to 8,548 yuan, an increase of 11.
83% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 41.
99%.
The price in individual regions was once It exceeded 8,800 yuan, a new high since 2013, and the industry's profits continued to improve
.

　　As for the future trend of MTBE, industry analysts believe that the market supply is expected to decrease, but demand is in the off-season, and export orders have come to an end, so it is difficult for the demand to increase significantly
.

　　Supply is expected to decrease

　　According to Liang Fulan, an analyst at Longzhong Information, in June, MTBE was supported by a variety of favorable conditions such as reduced supply and export-driven growth.
The atmosphere of market speculation was strong, and prices rose sharply.
Prices in various regions across the country once exceeded 8,500 yuan across the board
.
The MTBE market in the outer disk is also rising again and again
.
In Asia, Europe and the United States, under the support of factors such as acceptable gasoline demand and limited resources in some regions, MTBE prices continue to rise, with a monthly increase of 7% to 24%
.

　　From the perspective of supply, no new units have been put into operation in the MTBE industry recently, and the production capacity has remained stable at 20.
27 million tons/year
.
At present, Shenyang Paraffin Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
and Shandong Minghao Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
are still undergoing maintenance.
Shenchi Chemical Group Co.
, Ltd.
resumed construction in mid-June, and Lihuayi Group Co.
, Ltd.
was temporarily shut down for about a week.
Other factories maintain normal production.
, with no significant fluctuations
.
In June, the MTBE output of China's export factories was 360,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.
78%, an increase of 0.
49 percentage points from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 1.
13 percentage points
.

　　From the perspective of the main production areas, the MTBE capacity utilization rate and gasoline capacity utilization rate in Shandong increased simultaneously, with a month-on-month growth rate of 1.
23% and 8.
56% respectively
.
"The growth rate of gasoline capacity utilization rate is significantly higher than that of MTBE, which is also one of the important factors for the rise of the MTBE market
.
" Wang Chunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Trade Co.
, Ltd.
, said that entering July, Shenyang Paraffin Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
, Shandong Ming Hao Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
has no plans to start construction.
Dongming Qianhai Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
plans to overhaul within a month.
It is expected that MTBE production will be reduced again in July, injecting impetus for the MTBE market to maintain a high level of operation
.

　　Profit margins move up

　　From the perspective of cost, international crude oil showed a V-shaped trend in June, and the prices at the beginning of the month and the end of the month were basically the same
.
Due to the reduction of the burden and production of some deep processing units, the supply gap in the region has narrowed and the price has declined
.
However, with the strengthening of crude oil support, most of the post-ether C4 manufacturers mainly focus on maintaining stable shipments, and there is a tentative small increase in some periods
.

　　The buying and selling atmosphere of another raw material isobutane has improved, but under the influence of more supply, the price increase is not large, only about 60 yuan higher than that in May
.

　　Affected by the fact that the increase in raw materials was not as good as that of itself, the profit of MTBE in June was more than 460 yuan, an increase of 73.
1% from the previous month
.

　　Compared with the dilemma of meager profits and even cost inversion in the first quarter, the profits of the three MTBE devices continued to improve in June and were all profitable
.
Among them, the gross profit of traditional craft products was about 461 yuan, an increase of 73.
1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 32.
79%; the gross profit of heterogeneous MTBE process products was 468.
29 yuan, a decrease of 7.
45% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 24.
61%; the dehydrogenation MTBE process performed well and the product gross profit It was 1152.
11 yuan, up 42.
2% month-on-month and 32.
65% year-on-year
.

　　"Recently, the international crude oil price has plummeted.
Due to the poor profits of downstream deep processing enterprises, the operating load of C4 after ether continues to decline, and the overall demand is limited
.
However, with the advent of the summer vacation, the domestic gasoline market has ushered in the traditional peak consumption season
.
Driven by the improvement in terminal demand, After ether, the focus of C4 market may move up slightly again
.
Another raw material, isobutane, is expected to decline slightly due to the limited increase in demand and abundant supply
.
” Yang Meng, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, said that on the whole, the cost The situation is basically stable and small, and the MTBE industry has little chance of losing money, and it is expected to continue the current situation
.

　　Downstream demand is acceptable

　　In June, due to the effective control of the epidemic and the arrival of the summer demand season, the operating rate of the gasoline industry continued to increase, up 8.
56 percentage points from the previous month.
The gasoline production also increased, and the demand for raw material MTBE increased
.

　　In addition, foreign demand is strong, and China's MTBE exports have maintained a good momentum
.
In May, China's MTBE export volume was 87,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 634.
45%; in June, export orders were mostly, and the export volume is expected to exceed 100,000 tons
.

　　Wang Chunming analyzed that, from the perspective of the market outlook, the country has entered a high temperature mode, the number of trips on the approaching student holidays, and the national itinerary card picking up stars will benefit gasoline demand.
However, since July is a low season for gasoline consumption, it is unlikely that the demand will increase significantly.
It is difficult to strengthen further
.

　　In addition, as export orders come to an end, the export volume of MTBE in July is expected to drop compared to June, and the export volume is expected to drop to less than 100,000 tons, but it will still be much higher than the same period last year
.
During the export collection period, it will effectively reduce the sales pressure of the MTBE market
.

　　Industry insiders believe that although domestic gasoline consumption was in the off-season in July and export orders decreased, the high level of crude oil still supports the cost of chemical products, and the supply of MTBE is reduced, so the risk of MTBE market decline is not large, and it is not ruled out that prices may rise slightly in certain periods.
possible
.