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Most of the non-ferrous metals were red today, and Shanghai aluminum rose 2.
08%.
On August 23, SMM statistics counted domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 743,000 tons, a slight increase of 02,000 tons from the previous Thursday, Gongyi area has concentrated arrivals, contributing to the main increase, while Wuxi and South China Sea inventories continued to decline
.
It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact
of the arrival of goods at the place of consumption on short-term inventory fluctuations.
In terms of macro, under the background of poor performance of social finance data in the early stage, the domestic economic situation in the second half of the year is still grim, and it is difficult for the monetary side to continue to tighten expectations, and the fiscal side has room
for strength.
Powell called for the necessity of fiscal support, under the situation of epidemic expansion, market risk sentiment is down, and macro level pressure is greater
.
On the supply side, the latest press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission recently proposed that the next stage will strictly control provinces and local states that do not meet the energy consumption indicators, which may further restrict the release of production capacity of aluminum enterprises and aggravate
supply-side interference.
On the demand side, the operating rate of leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.
5 percentage points to 68.
6% this week, mainly due to the reduction of the impact of power cuts by aluminum processing enterprises in Henan and the increase in the start of local plate and foil enterprises
.
From the perspective of starting construction, on the one hand, pay attention to the follow-up situation of the impact of power cuts, on the other hand, there is little left in the off-season of consumption, and pay attention to the recovery of
consumption.
It is expected that if the impact of power cuts gradually decreases, the start of downstream processing enterprises will gradually end with the off-season, and the start will gradually increase
.
In the short term, with the stability of market sentiment and optimism about peak season consumption expectations, the main force of Shanghai aluminum or once again stands above 20,000, the overall trend is still strong, but there should be no high expectations, and the operation can continue to buy
on the dip.
