Models predict which children are at risk of obesity

July 16, Scientific Reports published a study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Yantai City that proposed a model that predicted China's child body mass index (BMI) five years in advance with a 70 percent accuracy rate. The model found that obesity rates among children aged 6-11 will increase by 2023, but since all the data are from the same city, there may be limits to the generality of the results.
researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Control in Yantai City collected data on 45,540 boys and 43,440 girls aged 6-11 in the city from 2013 to 2018 and divided them into four groups by BMI: underweight (2,940), normal weight (48,924), overweight (15,278), and obesity (21,838). The authors found that 65 percent of children classified as obese in 2013 were still in the obese group by 2018, while only 13 percent and 22 percent were in the normal weight group and weight recombination. The authors also found that boys, taller, urban children had a higher risk of being overweight or obese.
the above data, the authors developed an algorithmic model to predict the risk of overweight and obesity in the study sample by 2023. Models show that, without any intervention, the obesity rate for boys aged 6-11 in rural areas will increase from 22 per cent to 26 per cent and for girls from 14 to 16 per cent. Obesity rates among children in urban areas are expected to remain the same.
study suggests that early childhood may lead to a weight trend that can be accompanied throughout life. The authors' predictive models may help to assess the severity of childhood obesity and to take targeted interventions and treatments. (Source: Liu Runan, China Science Journal)
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