Mid Shanghai: soybean review

Introduction: the trading volume of soybean futures in dashangsuo increased on Friday, but the main forward contracts continued to shake the market Early trading was affected by Thursday's closing decline in the U.S market, but after repeated and supportive period prices began to rise, but the impact on the upper resistance did not turn into market momentum The close was still mostly slightly higher CBOT soybean futures closed lower on Thursday, but the main November contract remained in this week's price range According to the analysis, the main factor contributing to the decline of soybean price is that the market expects that the low temperature and rainy weather in the near future will increase the excellent growth rate of soybean in the United States, and the sharp decline of soybean oil price on that day will also put pressure on soybean price The decline was triggered by a sharp rise in soybean oil inventories in July, according to the US Bureau of statistics In November, soybean tried to follow the trend of soybean meal price rebound, but due to lack of energy, it failed to break the short-term average and finally closed Soybeans fell 4.75 cents to 481 cents in November On that day, as a net head, the fund was short more than 2000 times in total, while the commercial institutions were a little more net From today's Liandou market, affected by Thursday's slightly lower closing price of U.S soybeans, Liandou's forward contracts in the early market fluctuated after opening slightly lower After opening at a low price, it picked up, but it went down again after being pressured After getting support twice, it triggered technology buying, which pushed forward the period price shock After the main July contract rose to 2200 members, the weakness after buying turned into the market trend But the close was still mostly slightly higher Industry insiders in the U.S soybean market are generally in a negative situation, so the soybean oil continued to fall on Thursday, which limited the space for soybean price to rise At present, the market expects that the soybean output forecast in September grain supply and demand report will be similar to that in August This is mainly based on the judgment of the recent low temperature and rainy weather in soybean production area At present, there are still many bad weather forecasts However, some unofficial forecasters believe that the actual soybean production in the United States may be 1 million bushels lower than that estimated by the U.S Department of agriculture, which is mainly based on the conclusion that the soybean growth this year is at a lower level over the years Recently, the U.S soybean export performance is weak In the latest statistical week, a total of 282000 tons of soybeans were exported, most of which are new season soybeans The 2000 / 2001 market statistics year will end on Friday, and it seems that no one doubts that the actual export value of us soybeans will reach and exceed the export plan of the US Department of agriculture In the domestic soybean market, the CIF price of China's imported soybeans decreased by 40-70 yuan this week The industry insiders said that it was due to the surge of imports In addition, the spot price of soybean meal has declined recently We think that the overall shock pattern of Liandou has not changed at present, and more market participants are bearish on the future market But from a technical point of view, short-term as a result of long protection, long-term contracts in the early decline after maintaining low sideways consolidation Therefore, under the condition that it is difficult to form an effective breakthrough in the next level, the short-term price has the demand for recovery, but because the situation of the medium and long-term line is weak has not changed, the short-term price should be enough From the perspective of operation, we can also wait for the opportunity to rebound and sell short.