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In the first half of the year, the domestic melamine market fluctuated sharply, with an amplitude of 134.
3%
.
At the beginning of the year, the price of melamine was relatively low, only 7,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), but the price soared from April to early May, reaching more than 15,000 yuan at the peak, with an amplitude of 134.
The market fluctuates and rises
The market fluctuates up, the market fluctuates upXiao Yi, the marketing director of Hunan Minghui Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
, analyzed that from the specific trends of each month, the melamine market was slightly stable in the first quarter, and the large fluctuations were mainly concentrated in the second quarter
.
In the monthly increase and decrease list of chemical products from April to June, melamine was either ranked in the top few of the increase list, or ranked in the top few of the decline list
According to Ding Xiuna, an analyst at Longzhong Information, the melamine market has experienced an inflection point after the "May Day" after more than 80 days of continuous price increases, and is showing a trend of "out of control"
.
In the atmosphere of slowing new orders, traders and melamine companies have cut prices to buy orders
Three factors support
Three factors support three factors supportXiao Yi said that compared with last year, the overall melamine market showed an upward trend in the first half of this year, especially the huge increase from April to May, mainly due to three reasons: First, the environmental impact
.
Since the beginning of this year, the prices of crude oil, steel, building materials, chemicals and other bulk products have soared, and the price of melamine can rise to an ultra-high price of more than 15,000 yuan, which is closely related to the general environment
In addition, the prosperity of downstream melamine, impregnated paper and other industries has also rebounded sharply.
Some companies have ordered orders until July, and the demand for melamine is relatively strong
.
Zhongyu Information analyst Fan Jing believes that this year's melamine export market is improving, which is also one of the important factors supporting domestic prices
.
According to statistics, in the first five months of this year, China’s export volume of melamine was about 180,000 tons, an increase of 35.
4% over the same period last year
.
Relatively stable in the later period
Relatively stable in the later stage relatively stable in the later stage According to Xiao Yi's analysis, there were actually many irrational factors due to the sharp fluctuations in the melamine market in the first half of the year.
Some manufacturers tried their best to push up prices, which caused anxiety in the downstream, and they chased higher purchases
.
In the second half of the year, the market is expected to be relatively stable, with price fluctuations within 50%
"Demand and exports will continue to maintain a good momentum in the second half of the year.
At the same time, the high urea price will also support melamine, but the increase in supply is expected to bring some negative effects to the melamine market
.
" Xiao Yi said that currently melamine is lucrative.
"The operating rate of melamine enterprises in the second half of the year is expected to exceed 70%, and the national average daily output is more than 4,000 tons
.
" Xiao Yi said, from a comprehensive analysis of factors such as cost, production and demand, and exports, the price of melamine in the second half of the year is expected to be between 8,000 and 12,000.
