Medium term light long term optimism -- several trends of soybean price in Dalian in the future

Introduction: first, the relationship between Dalian soybean and CBOT soybean should be analyzed from the perspective of global market integration With China's accession to the World Trade Organization approaching, the process of integration will be further accelerated From the perspective of global market, China is one of the main soybean sales areas, while CBOT represents the main soybean production areas, so the two must be consistent in the general trend Generally speaking, the price of the production area is at the top in the bull market (for example, CBOT soybean peaked in 1996, Dalian soybean peaked in 1997), while the price of the main sales area is at the bottom in the bear market Therefore, in the process of bull bear conversion, Dalian soybean should lead CBOT out of the bear market In fact, from the weekly chart of the two since 1995, it can be seen clearly that CBOT has not come out of the long-term downward pressure line, that is, it is still in a bear market However, Dalian soybean stepped out of its long-term downward pressure line in the first half of 2000, about a year ahead of CBOT, and entered a stage of wide oscillation bottoming The oscillation box interval is 1900-2400, and the maximum box width is 500 points The basic premise for Dalian soybean to complete the bottoming stage is that CBOT must step out of its downward pressure line According to the above argument, it should be only a matter of time before CBOT steps out of the downward pressure line (it should be within 2001 according to the time cycle) Because Dalian soybean has obviously got rid of the long-term downward trend and entered a period of wide oscillation bottoming If this wide oscillation range is downward and repeatable, its theoretical decline space will be at least 500 points after the downward breakthrough, that is to say, Dalian soybean will fall to about 1400 points, which is unimaginable from the current basic and technical aspects 2、 In theory, the relationship between fundamentals and technology determines the development direction of the price trend, which fully shows the importance of fundamentals, but unfortunately, as a general investor in the futures market, it is almost impossible to accurately grasp the supply and demand of commodities They can only get part of the limited public information and reports and then make a general judgment In my opinion, as a general investor of futures, we should give priority to the technical aspect and supplement the fundamental aspect in determining the general trend, and the two aspects should be able to confirm each other, so we can draw a conclusion with greater assurance However, we should start from the technical point of view to grasp the opportunity of access In the same way, technical analysis should be comprehensive rather than relying on a certain technical means to solve the problem, otherwise it is easy to go astray 3、 The future trend of soybean in Dalian 1 The analysis of the current open fundamentals shows that the global soybean supply is beginning to develop in a positive direction (as can be seen from the recent report of the United States Department of Agriculture) Therefore, the author thinks that the possibility of soybean falling sharply again to a new low in history is very small, and the falling space of soybean will be very limited even if it reaches a new low again 2 Technical situation A wave analysis The author thinks that Dalian soybean is going through a zigzag and triangular joint adjustment wave since it peaked in 1997 For the specific wave shape division, take January soybean as an example: from 3300 in 1997 to 1800 in 1999, it was a 5-3-5 zigzag downward wave; from 1800 in 1999 to 2400 at the beginning of 2000, it was a-b-c three wave structure X wave; since the beginning of 2000, it was a triangle adjustment wave The current trend may be in the triangle E-wave decline, and its decline may target around 1900 Once e wave is completed, it means that the whole adjustment wave of 5 years is over, and a new round of bull market will start CBOT may be in a triangular C-wave decline due to the lag Take the November contract as an example, the possible target of decline is around 400 cents B traditional analysis Dalian soybean is in the bottom stage of tank oscillation, and its fluctuation range is shrinking At present, the possible range is between 1900 and 2300, taking the January contract as an example Unless the price effectively breaks through 2300, it is still in an interval oscillation pattern While CBOT is still running in the decline channel, the bottom is unclear, and the strong support level is still around 400 cents in the case of the November contract To sum up, the short-term trend of soybean price is complex and uncertain (may be weak first, but the range is limited), the medium-term trend is bearish, and the long-term trend is bullish In terms of operation, investors can cautiously hold short orders and mainly short at high price, while short term is the best way to long (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: