May 2019 Sugar Market Supply and Demand Situation Analysis: Prices are expected to run smoothly in the near future

China Business Intelligence Network News: domestic prices flat slightly lower, international prices fell significantly.
a large number of domestic new sugar market, sufficient supply, consumption into the peak season, demand is rising, it is expected that the near future domestic sugar prices to run smoothly mainly.
Due to the expected increase in production in India and Thailand and the weakening of the Brazilian currency, international sugar prices are depressed, export profits are low, some major producers began to restrict exports, stimulating a rebound in sugar prices, but huge inventories have suppressed the rise in international sugar prices.
(a) domestic prices were flat and slightly lower.
, the average domestic sugar price fell 47 yuan, or 0.9 percent, to 5,196 yuan a tonne, and 316 yuan, or 5.7 percent, year-on-year.
main reasons for the flat domestic sugar prices are: the end of the domestic sugar production period, sufficient supply, the arrival of the peak consumption season, rising demand, stable market trading.
(ii) International sugar prices have fallen significantly.
may, the average international sugar price (ICE 11 raw sugar futures, the same as 11) was 11.81 cents per pound, down 0.82 cents, or 6.5 percent, from a year earlier, and 0.07 cents, or 0.6 percent, from a year earlier.
of the apparent decline in international sugar prices were: expected increases in sugar production in India and Thailand, and a weaker Brazilian currency.
(iii) the spread between domestic and foreign exchange rates widened.
May, Brazil's sugar-to-shore after-tax price of 15% of the quota was 3,291 yuan per ton, down 104 yuan, or 3.1%, from the previous month, 1,905 yuan lower than the domestic sugar price and 57 yuan more than the previous month.
The after-tax price of Brazilian sugar, which is 50% tariff outside the import quota, was 4,186 yuan per ton, down 136 yuan, or 3.1%, from the previous month, 1010 yuan lower than the domestic sugar price and 89 yuan more than the previous month.
,208 yuan per ton, 9 yuan higher than the domestic sugar price, after-tax price of Brazilian sugar, which imposes a 40% safeguard tariff outside the tariff quota.
sugar imports fell sharply in January-April.
, China imported 342,400 tons of sugar, a 5.1-fold increase over the previous month and a decrease of 26.4% year-on-year.
January-April, China imported 546,500 tons of sugar, a decrease of 39.3% YoY, and imports of US$197 million, a decrease of 44.8% YoY.
mainly from Cuba (44.6 per cent of total imports), Brazil (33.0 per cent) and Thailand (12.3 per cent).
(v) the global sugar glut is expected to decrease in the 2019/20 squeeze season.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast in May that global sugar production for the 2019/20 quarter would be 1.8734 million tons, up 1% year-on-year, while sugar consumption would be 17.6449 million tons, up 1.4% year-on-year, and end-of-period inventory would be 4.7836 million tons, down 6% year-on-year.
(vi) is expected to run smoothly in domestic sugar prices, international sugar prices have little room for improvement.
domestic aspects, this month the domestic sugar production period officially ended, production around the stable, a large number of new sugar market, adequate supply.
Domestic sugar market into the consumption season, market demand rose sharply, market turnover rose steadily, is expected to run smoothly in the near future domestic sugar prices, internationally, India and Thailand recently released data show that the two countries' 2018/2019 production will reach the highest market forecast range.
The Indian Sugar Association raised its forecast for total production for the quarter by 2.3 million tonnes to 33m tonnes, an increase of 500,000 tonnes from 32.5m tonnes in the previous quarter and a record high.
Thailand produced nearly 14.42m tonnes of sugar as of April 15, nearly 1m tonnes more than the official forecast for the entire squeeze season.
fell to an eight-year low this month as the country's sugar suppliers are expected to increase sugar exports, fears of oversupply and a plunge in international sugar prices.
Due to the low international sugar prices, export profits are less, at the end of this month Brazil, India, Thailand and other major producing countries began to restrict exports, the cancellation of some export contracts, to a certain extent, stimulated the rise in sugar prices, but due to the huge international inventory pressure, the international sugar prices are expected to rise little room.