Market worries remain Natural rubber or continue to fluctuate the market

News: 1.
Thailand's November export volume of tianjiao increased year-on-month, while mixed rubber fell
double.
2.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: Passenger car production in early to mid-December decreased by 2.
5%
y/y.
3.
According to Longzhong Information statistics, the operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers last week was 55.
46%, down 12.
83% month-on-month and 9.
83% year-on-year; The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 58.
89%, down 13.
70% month-on-month and 5.
51%
year-on-year.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 19 years state-owned full latex reported 13400 (+300) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 13200 (+300) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 18600 (+300) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1560 (+30) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 December cargo reported 1560 (+20) US dollars / ton
.
Field glue in Hat Yai raw material market in Thailand 50.
5 (-1) baht/kg; Cup glue 38 (-0.
75) baht/kg
.
Hainan state-owned glue into the whole dairy plant to produce whole milk 12500 (+0) yuan / ton, into the concentrated milk factory to produce concentrated milk 13200 (+0) yuan / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 in North China market price 11300 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10700 (+0) yuan / ton
.

New rubber output: Southeast Asia: In winter, the epidemic situation abroad has become more and more severe, Thailand and other major producing countries in Southeast Asia have strengthened prevention and control measures, and the output and export of tianjiao will inevitably be affected to a certain extent
.
In 2020, pests and diseases, epidemics, heavy rainfall, typhoons and other factors led to a decrease in natural rubber production, and it is estimated that the annual output may decrease by about
10%.

In terms of inventory: as of December 31, 2020, the stock of natural rubber in the previous period was 172862 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 160,570 tons, an increase of 2,042 tons and 1,800 tons respectively; The inventory of No.
20 rubber was 48,002 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 46,489 tons, an increase of 918 tons and 1,007 tons respectively; The inventory and warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber futures and No.
20 rubber in the previous period increased
.

Demand: the industry boom has rebounded, tire sales continue to improve, demand surge caused by the high growth of the downstream automotive industry, and the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to alleviate in the short term; And affected by the price increase of upstream raw materials such as carbon black, rubber, butadiene, steel wire, etc.
, many tire companies issued price
increases.
In early December, tire prices increased, and many tire companies such as Triangle Tire and Fengshen Tire issued price increase letters, with an increase of about 3%, attracting overseas tire dealers to join the price increase
.
China's automobile production and sales have achieved growth
for eight consecutive months.
The association believes that as the domestic economic environment continues to improve, and the national policies to promote consumption continue to drive, the domestic automobile market demand is still expected to continue to grow
.

The current market downturn, mainly affected by the panic caused by the overseas epidemic situation on the market outlook, moreover, China's New Year's Day holiday and Spring Festival holiday are both major holidays, factory starts, etc.
will be affected to a certain extent, it is expected that natural rubber will continue to fluctuate the market
.