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On Tuesday, the main 2010 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell under pressure, with the highest 14610 yuan / ton during the day, the lowest 14450 yuan / ton, and the close of 14450 yuan / ton, down 0.
96% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum shock adjustment, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1774 US dollars / ton, up 0.
23%
per day.
Market focus: (1) US President Trump's administration agenda specifically lists the theme of "China", including withdrawing manufacturing from China and holding China responsible
for the new crown epidemic.
(2) In July 2020, the operating rate of China's electrolytic aluminum producers was about 81.
75%, up 4.
1% month-on-month and 6.
49%
year-on-year.
(3) China's total output of alumina in July was 6.
1006 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.
6%; China's total aluminum output in July was 4.
8783 million tons, an increase of 14.
2%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: On August 25, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14730-14770 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14750 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan / ton
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 138022 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 1348 tons; On August 24, LME aluminum stocks were 1572950 tons, a daily decrease of 1,150 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2010 contract were 63745 lots, minus 3051 lots per day, short positions were 75734 lots, daily minus 1759 lots, net short positions were 11989 lots, daily increase of 1292 lots, long and short were reduced, net short increased
.
Market research and judgment: On August 25, the main force of Shanghai aluminum fell under pressure in 2010
.
US President Donald Trump's administration agenda is dedicated to China, indicating that there is a possibility of further deterioration of Sino-US tensions, and market concerns have risen; At the same time, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has gradually recovered, the operating rate of producers has been rising, and the pressure on aluminum prices has gradually increased
.
However, the upstream Alunrote alumina plant reduced production, and it is expected that alumina prices will stop falling and stabilize; And the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level overall, the pressure on the supply side is still limited, and the initial closure of the import window restricts the entry of overseas sources, which supports aluminum prices
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2010 contract of Shanghai aluminum is large, focusing on the support of the 14350 position below, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.