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On Wednesday, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai copper rushed back down, with the highest 52,700 yuan / ton and the lowest 52,090 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price of 52,130 yuan / ton, down 0.
11% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In terms of external trading, LME copper opened high and low, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 6483 US dollars / ton, down 0.
26%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) On Tuesday (July 14), local time, US President Trump announced that he had signed a regulation that would impose sanctions
on Chinese entities and individuals who "help limit Hong Kong's autonomy".
Spot analysis: On July 15, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 51270-52550 yuan / ton, with an average price of 52460 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 350 yuan / ton
.
Spot goods are also temporarily showing a situation of overall premium, but copper prices are still high, the supply of goods is still loose, the transaction is difficult to improve significantly, after the change of month, it may still be able to maintain a slight premium pattern, and the situation of supply and demand tug-of-war will continue
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 65,024 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 12,450 tons per day; On July 14, LME copper stocks were 168225 tons, a daily decrease of 8,125 tons, a 20-day
decline.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2009 contracts were 73338 lots, minus 2502 lots, short positions were 72317 lots, a daily increase of 359 lots, net long positions were 1021 lots, daily decrease of 2861 lots, more short increases, net long decreases
.
Market research and judgment: On July 15, Shanghai copper 2009 rushed back down
.
The US intervention in Hong Kong, China, and the resurgence of the Sino-US dispute in the South China Sea have dampened market risk sentiment; At the same time, downstream demand entered the traditional off-season, demand performance was weak, and Shanghai copper inventories continued to rise; And the refined waste price difference is further expanded to about 3,000 yuan / ton, and the substitution role of copper scrap will gradually appear, limiting the upward momentum
of copper prices.
However, inflation expectations remain under global monetary easing; At the same time, Chile's copper mine production has been aggravated by the impact of the epidemic, and it is expected that the tight supply of copper mines in the third quarter will continue, and copper smelting production will continue to be suppressed, which will support
copper prices.
In terms of spot, the supply of goods is still loose, and the transaction is difficult to improve
significantly.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2009 contract reduced its position, and the market trading tended to be cautious, and short-term shock adjustment
was expected.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2009 contract can operate in the range of 51800-52800 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 150 yuan / ton
each.
