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On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum went higher without success, continued to fall in the afternoon, fell below the 20-day moving average, and closed at 14655 at the end of the day, down 55, or 0.
37%,
from the previous trading day.
The 200 billion tariff is unresolved, the macro atmosphere is weak, and the market is trading cautiously, but under the continuous rise in costs and the support of favorable fundamentals, it is expected that the downside is limited, and the short-term Shanghai aluminum or test the support of the 14500 mark
.
It is expected that spot aluminum will not fluctuate much next Monday, or fall
slightly.
In terms of spot, Shanghai trading concentration 14600~14610 yuan / ton to the current month discount 20~10 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration 14600~14610 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration 14610 ~ 14630 yuan / ton
.
The spot discount is narrow, the holder ships stably, the middleman is difficult to find a low-priced source, the receiving force is weakened, the downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream enterprises in Jiangyin are still in the process of stopping production and rectifying, and the overall transaction is slightly worse
than yesterday.
In terms of alumina, Guiyang primary alumina quotation was 3180 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Shanxi first-class alumina quotation was 3340 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Henan first-class alumina quotation was 3340 yuan / ton, up 15 yuan / ton
.
Alumina gains slowed
.
In terms of inventory, LME aluminum stocks were 1,062,700 tons, down 1,750 tons from the previous trading day, and aluminum stocks in the previous period were 705104 tons, down 6,955 tons
from the previous trading day.
According to statistics, the total inventory of aluminum ingots in the consumption area on September 6 was 1.
714 million tons, down 33,000 tons
from last Thursday.
With the continuous decline of spot inventory and the improvement of consumer demand in the later period, it may form a positive support
for aluminum prices.
In the short term, the macro atmosphere is weak, the trend of Shanghai aluminum is greatly affected by macro factors and waiting for further confirmation of macro, it is expected that the short-term Shanghai aluminum shock is weak
.
