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On Monday, the main 2107 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a low level, with the highest 18460 yuan / ton, the lowest 18235 yuan / ton, and the close of 18280 yuan / ton, down 190 yuan / ton from the previous trading day's closing price; LME aluminum fluctuated in a narrow range, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2364 / ton, down 0.
92%
from the previous session.
Market focus: (1) The export volume of electrolytic aluminum in major regions of China (2021/6/13-2021/6/20) is about 123,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons
from the previous period.
China's 6063 aluminum rod spot inventory (10,000 tons): total 11.
7, up 0.
4
from last Thursday (June 17).
Spot analysis, spot A00 aluminum reported 18360-18400 yuan / ton, the average price was 18380 yuan / ton, down 170 yuan
daily.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders of goods are reluctant to sell, the receiving party purchases at a low price, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable, and the overall trading situation is better
.
Warehouse receipt inventory, Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 74,476 tons, down 5,052 tons from the previous trading day; LME stocks were 1,612,900 tonnes, down 8,425 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 longs of the main 2107 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 83623 lots, minus 10949 lots per day, short positions 79477 lots, daily minus 8538 lots, net short positions 4146 lots, daily increase of 8359, long and short reduction, net short increase
.
Market research: The Fed dot plot shows that 7 members are expected to start raising interest rates in 2022, and 13 members are expected to start raising interest rates in 2023, compared with 4 and 7 in March this year, respectively, the Fed's recent hawkish information has brought support to the dollar, and the dollar may still have some upside
.
Recently, the supply and demand of the aluminum market is weak, the supply-side interference has weakened, and the market is waiting for the first actual release of the national reserve at the end of June, and the supply pressure in the third quarter may be highlighted
.
In the long run, the logic of aluminum ingot capacity bottleneck remains unchanged
.
On the demand side, domestic electrolytic aluminum exports have shrunk, aluminum rod inventories have increased, downstream terminal procurement willingness is weak, and overall consumption has shown signs of
seasonal weakening.
Overall, aluminum prices have recently rushed to a weak level, and the price center of gravity may consolidate at the 10,000-eighth mark
.
