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During the Western Christmas holiday, the domestic spot copper market staged a wave of big ups and
downs.
During the Christmas break in European and American markets, market trading volume declined, and domestic spot copper prices fell by about 2.
4%, hitting a low level in nearly seven weeks
.
Recently, the profits of China's industrial enterprises in November increased by 14.
5%, and the growth rate of main business income and profit in the month has exceeded the GDP growth rate year-on-year, indicating that the domestic economy has stabilized and rebounded significantly, the commodity market sentiment has picked up rapidly, base metals have been supported and then sharply higher, and spot copper prices have risen by about 4.
3%
in two days.
In terms of the external market, the holiday is coming, investors are leaving the market to see that popularity has fallen
again.
LONDON, Dec.
29 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) released a broker's position report on Thursday showing that as of Friday, the fund's net long position in copper futures decreased to 68,435 lots, compared with 77,119 contracts in the previous week
.
The fund held a total of 136,708 long positions in copper and 68,273 short positions
.
The first contract is 25 tons
.
After Christmas and New Year's Day, traders took advantage of the quiet trading of the holiday to lock in part of the large rally recorded in the last quarter of 2016 and adjust their positions
before the new year.
LME copper traded at $5,493 per tonne on average over two trading days, up $
12.
50 per day.
Macro: The central exchange rate of the yuan was 6.
9370, up 127 basis points from the previous session, ending a three-session losing streak and the biggest increase in nearly two weeks
.
The China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced that it will adjust the CFETS RMB exchange rate index currency basket rules, adjust the US dollar weight from 0.
2640 to 0.
2240, and add 11 currencies
such as South Korean won.
The first currency basket adjustment will be completed
on January 1, 2017.
Too many
messages.
Outlook: Since Trump's victory in early November 2016, copper prices have been greatly encouraged to continue to rise as he is expected to expand fiscal spending and increase infrastructure construction in the United States, with the average spot copper price in November reported at 43,918 yuan / ton, up nearly 16%
from October.
In 2016, the domestic spot copper price rose by about 22.
7%.
Analysts believe that the performance of copper prices in 2016 has obviously dragged down the base metals as a whole, but in the first half of 2017, copper prices will come out of a wave of supplementary
rises.
Analysts expect copper supply to grow by only 1.
3% in 2017, while major economies other than China expect demand to grow by 2.
6%.
As for China, copper demand drivers in China may change, but the government is unlikely to tolerate a sharp slowdown
in growth ahead of the 19th Party Congress in 2017.