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Overnight, Lun aluminum rebounded sharply to close the long sun, recovering Friday's losses and hitting a new high, opening slightly lower at $1776.
5 on Monday
.
Shanghai aluminum overnight high fell back to close at 14290, due to the decline in domestic demand, Shanghai aluminum trend is obviously weak
.
Shanghai aluminum trading fell and positions rose slightly, market sentiment was cautious, technical patterns weakened, and medium-term uncertainty was high
.
Follow-up spot gradually entered the off-season, and pay close attention to the spot situation
in the later stage.
Shanghai aluminum upper pressure 15000, lower support 13500
.
In terms of the market, the overall transaction volume of the spot market rebounded on Monday morning, and after the price fell, the enthusiasm of middlemen to receive goods increased, the performance of cargo holders was strong, and downstream on-demand purchases
.
The mainstream trading price in Shanghai is around 14,580 yuan / ton, which is about 70 higher than that of futures
.
The mainstream transaction price in Guangdong is around 14470 yuan / ton
.
The rise in domestic supply is obvious, while consumption is weakening in stages, fundamentals are weakening, inventories are rising, and the pressure on prices is becoming more and more obvious, and the center of gravity of aluminum prices will gradually shift
.
Operationally it is recommended to operate short, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the risk
of forced positions with low inventory.
In August, electrolytic aluminum consumption began to weaken marginally, and cable orders declined significantly, which dragged
down terminal consumption.
Recycled aluminum consumption rebounded, and primary aluminum consumption was squeezed
.
The internal and external ratio is at a high level, and the import of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase
.
From the perspective of production rhythm, the supply increment of electrolytic aluminum in the second half of the year is significantly higher than that in the first half of the year, but it is mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter, and the short-term supply is unlikely to rise
sharply.
Reflected in the inventory, electrolytic aluminum stocks continued to rise by 14,000 tons to 739,000 tons this week, and the accumulation situation has formed in the case of marginal contraction of demand, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the accumulation of
stocks this week.
In terms of operation strategy, aluminum prices have pulled back, and investors recommend waiting and seeing
for the time being.
