Market risk aversion still exists, and the main force of Shanghai copper rushed back down

Market focus: (1) The US non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of 145,000 after the December seasonally adjustment, falling to a new low since May 2019, and an increase of 164,000
is expected.
(2) Canada's First Quantum said last Thursday that copper concentrate production in 2019 increased by 96,000 tons to 702,000 tons from 606,000 tons in 2018, and the company's production in the fourth quarter was 204,000 tons, compared with 158,000 tons in the same period in 2018
.

Spot analysis: On January 13, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 48550-48630 yuan / ton, the average price was 48590 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton
per day.
SMM reported that intraday market transactions are mostly traders choose the opportunity to bargain for replenishment, downstream trading is general, market inquiry atmosphere is active, low discount sources are still attractive, trade speculators entering the market proportion is still market transaction dominance, close delivery, the next month price difference still exists, spot quotations are biased towards the delivery trend
closer.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 65,782 tons, an increase of 750 tons per day; On January 10, LME copper stocks were 132725 tons, down 3,075 tons per day, 33 consecutive days
.
In the week ended January 10, copper cathode stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 133745 tons, down 7,572 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2003 contract are 90791 lots, a daily increase of 2247 lots, short positions of 93578 lots, daily minus 478 lots, net short positions of 2787 lots, daily minus 2725 lots, more increase and short, net space reduction
.

Market research and judgment: On January 13, the main force of Shanghai copper in 2003 rushed back down
.
The US non-farm payrolls data was unexpectedly less than expected, the US dollar index was slightly under pressure, and China and the United States will sign the first phase of the trade agreement on the 15th, market optimism heats up, superimposed on the global copper inventory shows a downward trend, of which Shanghai copper inventories have fallen, the copper price support is strong, but the situation in the Middle East has greater uncertainty, the market risk aversion still exists, while the recent appreciation of the RMB, copper import profit window slightly opened, not conducive to inventory decomposition, pressure on copper prices
。 In terms of spot, intraday market transactions are mostly traders choose the opportunity to bargain and replenish, downstream trading is general, market inquiry atmosphere is active, low-discount sources are still attractive, and the proportion of trade speculators entering the market is still dominated
by market transactions.
Technically, the main 2003 contract of Shanghai copper is long and the upper shadow, focusing on the support at the 48700 position, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2003 contract can be long around 48800 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 48700 yuan / ton
.