Market risk aversion heats up, rubber futures prices are weak and falling

News: 1.
The British new crown mutation has increased market panic, and the global market has plunged collectively in the afternoon
.
2.
Myanmar called for Thailand to approve 60,000 Myanmar laborers to enter Thailand
immediately.
3.
Cambodia tightens prevention and control measures
on the border with Thailand.
4.
According to Longzhong Information statistics, the operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers last week was 55.
46%, down 12.
83% month-on-month and 9.
83% year-on-year; The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 58.
89%, down 13.
70% month-on-month and 5.
51%
year-on-year.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 19 years state-owned full latex reported 13700 (-350) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 13300 (-450) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 18800 (-250) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1620 (+20) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 December cargo reported 1630 (+20) US dollars / ton
.
Thailand Hat Yai raw material market field glue 53 (+1) baht/kg; Cup glue 40 (+0) baht/kg
.
Hainan state-owned glue into the whole dairy plant to produce whole milk 12700 (-500) yuan / ton, into the concentrated milk factory to produce concentrated milk 13700 (-300) yuan / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price 11300 (-300) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10700 (-300) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 153810 tons, + 1300 tons; NR warehouse receipts 45,683 tons, - 191 tons
.
Main positions: RU2105 top 20 long positions 98403, + 5747; short positions 141009, + 1529; long and short increased, net space decreased
.

Summary: At present, the global production area is reducing production, but the absolute output is still at a high level
.
The domestic Yunnan production area is in the suspension period, and the lowest temperature in many cities and counties in the Hainan production area touches the cutting temperature of Tianjiao, and there is a possibility
of early suspension in the main production area.
It is reported that at present, some areas of the Hainan production area have stopped cutting, and it is difficult to improve the marginal output of full latex
.
Although Thailand is still in the peak production period, the recent epidemic has led to the "lockdown" of some parts of Thailand, Bangkok has entered a state of emergency, and the spot price of dark gum has been supported
by the strengthening of foreign labor control.
In terms of inventory, the inventory of tianjiao in Qingdao continued to decline, of which the decline in general trade inventory increased, and the pressure of dark rubber inventory decreased
.
On the demand side, environmental protection production restrictions have an impact on the operating rate of tire factories, domestic tire starts have fallen sharply, at present, Dongying, Weifang, Heze launched heavy pollution weather red alert level I emergency response, coupled with export due to shipping tension and sea freight rise resulting in export order delivery difficulty, it is expected that short-term tire start recovery is difficult
.
The emergence of a more transmissible new crown virus variant in the UK, the market risk aversion heats up, the RU2105 contract and the NR2102 contract have suffered heavy setbacks during the day, short-term attention to the development of the epidemic and the vaccine situation, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being, cautiously chase the short
.