Market risk aversion heats up and rubber futures fluctuate in the range

News: 1.
According to the statistics of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in October 2020, China's heavy-duty truck market sold 129,000 units, down 14.
3% month-on-month and up 41% year-on-year; Cumulative sales in the heavy-duty truck market from January to October reached approximately 1.
365 million units, a cumulative increase of 39% y/y, and a net increase of more than 380,000 units
.
2.
The Thai Cabinet approved 10 billion baht for the second phase of the rubber price guarantee plan
.
3.
Typhoon "Swan" will land in Vietnam "Eshani" will enter the South China Sea
on the 6th.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 19-year state-owned full latex reported 13750 (+0) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 13650 (-200) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 19350 (-50) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1600 (-60) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 November cargo reported 1590 (-60) US dollars / ton
.
Field glue in Hat Yai raw material market in Thailand 52.
7 (-5.
3) baht/kg; Cup gum 38.
45 (-0.
4) baht/kg
.
Domestic Yunnan Xishuangbanna glue into the dry rubber factory 13.
5-13.
7 (+0/+0) yuan/kg; Glue into latex factory 14.
1 (+0) yuan/kg
.
Hainan state-owned glue into the whole dairy plant to produce whole milk 13000 (-2000) yuan / ton, into the concentrated dairy factory to produce concentrated milk 13000 (-2000) yuan / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber in North China 1502 market price 11400 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10800 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 223820 tons, + 650 tons; NR warehouse receipt 38,395 tons, +0 tons
.
Main positions: RU2101 Top 20 long positions 96863, - 1914; short positions 129238, -71; long and short decrease, net short increased
.

Summary: In the early stage, the main production areas at home and abroad rainfall led to the tightness of raw materials, especially the successive typhoons in the Hainan production area, the impact of rainy weather is significant, it is difficult for rubber farmers to carry out normally, the phenomenon of raw material competition is obvious, the price of glue into the concentrated milk plant has risen sharply into the whole milk plant, but the excessive premium has also brought about the replacement of whole milk, the price of the recent concentrated milk plant has fallen sharply, the current price of the whole dairy plant and the concentrated milk plant is the same, Hainan will usher in a new typhoon, and it is expected that the raw material tightness will continue
。 On the demand side, the operating rate of tire factories continued to increase month-on-month, and was significantly higher than the same period last year, orders remained stable and improving, and domestic heavy-duty truck sales increased year-on-year and decreased
month-on-month.
Overall, the tight supply and demand of natural rubber has not improved, but affected by the second outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States and the US election, the rise in market risk aversion has brought about profit taking in the early stage, RU2101 contract short-term focus on the support around 14400 below, NR2101 contract focus on 10200 first-line support, you can pay attention to bargain buying opportunities, pay attention to risk control
.