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After opening slightly lower overnight, copper fluctuated slightly around $6,740 throughout the day, and opened slightly lower to $6,734.
5 today
.
Shanghai copper opened high and closed low in the night, closing at the 60-day moving average of 51550, basically flat
.
Shanghai copper trading positions are declining, the market is biased to wait and see, and the short-term may continue to fluctuate
around 51000.
Due to the increased uncertainty of the US presidential election, Shanghai copper is more likely to continue the volatility in October
.
The upper pressure of Shanghai copper is 52000, and the lower support is 50000
.
In terms of spot, on October 12, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a premium of 140 ~ 210 yuan / ton
for the contract of the month.
The transaction price of flat water copper is 51520 yuan / ton ~ 51590 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of premium copper is 51570 yuan / ton ~ 51640 yuan / ton
.
In terms of spot, yesterday was the second trading day after the holiday, the market showed signs of gradual recovery, most of the market participants returned, the market accumulated less than expected after the holiday, and the downstream replenishment demand is full of expectations again, the quotation is firm and higher, but the transaction is still more cautious
.
On the macro front, the current global low interest rates and ultra-loose monetary policy are still more likely to continue in the future, which is a very favorable factor for commodities, the current dollar is higher in the short term, but from the perspective of long-term US Treasury yields, it seems that the US side is still not out of the difficult situation of economic recovery
.
In terms of fundamentals, at present, because Chile and other major producers were still seriously affected by the epidemic in the third quarter, the market is still worried about the supply situation in the second half of the year, but on the demand side, as the most important demand country, China's current control of the new crown epidemic is the most effective country
.
Therefore, it is expected that the probability of sustained recovery of domestic economic activity in the second half of the year is relatively high
.
Prior to this, the State Grid set the 2020 power grid investment plan at 460 billion yuan, but as of the first half of the data, the actual investment amount of the power grid was only about one-third completed, so there is also the possibility
of rushing work in the second half of the year.
It should be noted that at present, copper prices showing a strong trend may stimulate the acceleration of new production capacity or even exceed expectations, which may also suppress copper prices from the supply side
.
After Friday's sharp weakening, the dollar index is still relatively weak in its rebound, which is more favorable for copper prices to remain relatively high
.
In addition, after the November holiday, market participants have gradually returned, and spot trading activity has rebounded, but the wait-and-see mood still exists
.
The future market needs to focus on whether domestic demand can continue to recover after the holiday, and LME inventories have experienced a sharp rise during the National Day period, in general, both the macro atmosphere and the demand outlook are relatively favorable
for copper prices.
Therefore, the future outlook for copper prices is still promising
.
