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Today's Shanghai aluminum main contract 1701 oscillation declined, the operating range was 14120-13850 yuan / ton, and closed at 13960 yuan / ton, down 0.
82% per day, weaker than other base metals, for three consecutive days
.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market maintained a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between Shanghai aluminum 1612 and 1701 contracts was flat to 335 yuan / ton, indicating that the decline resistance of the near-month contract declined
.
External trend: Asian Lun aluminum fell under pressure, of which 3-month Lun aluminum fell slightly by 0.
62% to 1750 US dollars / ton, its upper rebound resistance moved up to 1800 US dollars / ton, short-term technical form performance is weaker than Shanghai aluminum, because the strength of the US dollar on Lun aluminum more than Shanghai aluminum, short-term Lun aluminum operating range focus on 1700-1800 US dollars / ton
.
On the macro front: The Asian dollar index slipped under pressure and is now trading around 101.
4, close to the year's high of 102.
05 hit this week, as the market now has a 100%
probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in December.
In addition, initial jobless claims for the week ended Nov.
19 stood at 251,000, slightly higher than the previous 43-year low of 233,000, but still at a low level, indicating that the U.
S.
labor market is doing well
.
Aluminum industry information, China's bauxite imports in October were 4277637 tons, down 4.
43% year-on-year, and the cumulative import volume from January to October was 41.
968 million tons, down 3.
08%
year-on-year.
Market: On November 25, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 14620-14630 yuan / ton, and the premium for the month was 280-390 yuan / ton
.
On Friday, the cargo holder expects the downstream stocking demand to increase, panic dumping sentiment converged, shipments are stable, the quotation does not make a large adjustment with the fluctuation of aluminum in the period, some imported Rusal entered the Shanghai market, the quotation is slightly lower than the market, it is reported that the smelter actively arranges transportation, the middleman is worried about the arrival volume next week to hit the market price, still maintain a cautious mood step by step, low entry into the market, downstream rigid demand, bargain hunting positive stocking, the overall transaction is stable and rising
.
The Shanghai aluminum 1701 contract oscillated to 13960 yuan / ton during the day, performing worse than other base metals, as the market gradually digested short-term positive factors, and the aluminum market supply pressure concerns were rekindled
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the short-term operation of the Shanghai-aluminum 1701 contract should be cautious, which can be turned into range oscillation, and the operating range focuses on 13800-14200 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 150 yuan / ton
each.
