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Shanghai copper prices generally showed a volatile pattern last week, and the disruption of supply in South America may be eased
to some extent when the Chilean strike is suspended.
However, as the dollar continued to weaken, it still gave some support
to Lunlead.
However, due to the lack of particularly obvious bright spots that make copper prices continue to strengthen, copper prices have temporarily fallen into a volatile pattern
after the macro expectation preference is gradually digested by the market.
Last week, the premium of the spot market was generally slow to the downside
.
The Shanghai copper box fluctuated during the week, coinciding with weak demand at the end of the month, and limited buying interest
.
During the week, the price of good copper was high and firm due to the scarcity of supply, and the holders had no intention of reducing the price for cash, and the quotation of good copper during the week remained stable in the premium range of 80-100 yuan / ton stalemate and saw
.
Pingshui copper slowly weakened in the price reduction of holders to facilitate the transaction, so the price difference between Pingshui copper and good copper was significantly widened, and the downstream performance stopped and watched, allowing the market to feel in advance the off-season effect
after entering August.
At present, the probability of low interest rates and ultra-loose monetary policy around the world continuing in the future is still high, and this is a very favorable factor
for commodities.
In terms of fundamentals, at present, because major producers such as Chile are still seriously affected by the epidemic, the market is still worried about the supply situation in the second half of the year, but on the demand side, as the most important demand country, China's current control of the new crown epidemic is the most effective country
.
Therefore, it is expected that the probability of sustained recovery of domestic economic activity in the second half of the year is relatively high
.
Previously, the State Grid set the 2020 power grid investment plan at 408 billion yuan, but as of May, the actual investment amount of the power grid was only about a quarter completed, so there is also the possibility
of rushing work in the second half of the year.
It should be noted that at present, copper prices showing a strong trend may stimulate the acceleration of new production capacity or even exceed expectations, which may also suppress copper prices from the supply side
.
