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On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper 1809 rebounded strongly, trading at 50080-48830 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 49990 yuan / ton, up 1.
69% per day, the largest daily increase since October 16 last year, the current copper price is still valid under the moving average group, the technical pattern is bearish
.
In terms of term structure, Shanghai copper maintained a positive arrangement of near, low and far high, and the positive price difference between Shanghai copper 1808 contract and 1809 contract widened slightly to 120 yuan / ton, indicating that forward contracts are more willing to rebound
.
In the external market, the Asian market London copper oscillation strengthened, trading range of 6438-6326 US dollars / ton, of which as of 15:54 Beijing time, 3-month London copper reported 6389 US dollars / ton, up 1.
28% per day, the daily closing price is still close to the low level set on July 25, 2017, in the past month more than a month London copper has fallen more than 14%, short-term focus on over-fall rebound demand
.
In terms of positions, as of July 5, the position of London copper was 321,000, a daily decrease of 612 lots, indicating that the copper market long and short positions were mainly out of the wait-and-see
.
In terms of the market, on July 9, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 20-30 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 49530-49590 yuan / ton
.
Holders enthusiastically quoted a discount of 10-30 yuan / ton for water, but due to the large number of shipments, good copper was adjusted to 10-20 yuan / ton for premium, and flat water copper was discounted for about 20 yuan / ton, and the transaction improved
.
Although there was replenishment downstream, the buying volume was less than expected
.
Traders shipped a large number of goods, due to the proximity of delivery within the week, the price difference temporarily maintained around 100 yuan in the next month, the space for trade speculation was limited, the trade activity did not increase significantly, the market supply was abundant, but the holders maintained a strong price, the characteristics of supply and demand tug-of-war appeared again, and the intraday trading market conditions highlighted the characteristics
of Monday.
On the macro front, the Asian dollar index continued to fall under pressure, now trading around 93.
83, down 1.
8% from this round of high of 95.
53, mainly due to the high technical correction of the dollar index and the decline in the Fed's interest rate hike expectations during the year, and the short-term market is concerned about the latest progress
of the Sino-US trade war.
In terms of industry, data from the US Department of Commerce showed that the import volume of copper cathode in May this year was 64,198,774 kg, an increase of 3.
7% from 61,899,516 kg in April, an increase of 150% year-on-year, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 358,230,215 kg; The export volume of copper cathode in May was 8,815,062 kg, down 2.
79% from 9,068,100 kg in April and up 80.
99% year-on-year, with a total export volume of 34,075,831 kg
from January to May.
During the day, the Shanghai copper 1809 contract rebounded strongly to 49990 yuan / ton, mainly boosted by the technical rebound and the weakening of the US dollar
.
The short-term market panic has temporarily slowed down, and it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1809 contract can be backed above 49,600 yuan to bargain hunt, and the target is 50,500 yuan / ton
.
