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LME aluminum fluctuated upward on Thursday, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month Lun aluminum was reported at $1681.
5 / ton, up 0.
99%
per day.
The main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened high and went high, with the highest 14315 yuan / ton and the lowest 14135 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 14290 yuan / ton, up 0.
99% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 114121 lots, and the daily decrease was 10088 lots; Position 162222 lots, 2118 lots
.
basis 180 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai aluminum in 2008-2009 was 220 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) China's CPI in June 2020 increased by 2.
5% year-on-year, expected to increase by 2.
5%, and the previous value increased by 2.
4%; PPI fell 3% y/y, down 3.
2% expected and down 3.
7%
in the previous month.
(2) SMM reported that on July 9, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory fell by 7,000 tons to 712,000 tons; the domestic aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.
09 million tons from last Thursday to 72,300 tons
.
Spot analysis: On July 9, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14450-14490 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14470 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 150 yuan / ton
.
The supply of goods in the morning market is extremely tight, the number of receivers overwhelmingly exceeds the shippers, the quotation of the holder is firm, the shipment is smooth, but the market is still unsatisfactory due to the lack of stock transactions, although a large household normally announces the purchase plan, but from the price point of view, the actual transaction is not expected
.
Downstream intraday on-demand goods are the mainstay, and the sharp rise in aluminum prices inhibits its willingness to
receive goods.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 91,181 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 3,251 tons; On July 8, LME aluminum stocks were 1613050 tons, a daily decrease of 4,975 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract 103976 lots, a daily increase of 1700 lots, short positions of 114421 lots, a daily decrease of 755 lots, a net short position of 10445 lots, a daily decrease of 2455 lots, more increase and short, a decrease
in net short.
Market research and judgment: On July 9, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2008 opened high and went
high.
Under the impact of the overseas epidemic, the recovery of demand is still weak, the rise in the Shanghai ratio has led to the further expansion of the import profit window, and the subsequent overseas source imports are expected to increase, and aluminum exports will also be suppressed, limiting the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
However, recent strong data from major economies has boosted market optimism; And the performance of domestic demand is still down, and Shanghai aluminum inventories continue to dematerialize, and the support for aluminum prices still exists
.
In terms of spot, the supply of goods in the morning market is extremely tight, the number of receivers overwhelmingly exceeds the shippers, the quotations of holders are firm, and the downstream demand is the mainstay
.
Technically, the main 2008 contract daily KDJ indicator golden cross of Shanghai aluminum broke through the resistance of the 14200 mark, and it is expected that the short-term shock is strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2008 contract can be long around 14250 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14150 yuan / ton
.
