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Benefiting from high macro market optimism, copper prices rose
strongly last week.
For this week's copper price trend, it is expected that the market trading logic will still be dominated
by macro.
On the macro front, US and European stocks rose on Friday, and the Nasdaq continued to hit new highs
.
There was no important economic data on Friday, and the market continued to hype the news
that a number of vaccines were successful and expected to be available in December.
Although the global epidemic has worsened in recent days, the number of new infections in the United States has exceeded 200,000 in a single day, and many countries have announced tightening epidemic prevention measures, but vaccine expectations dominate financial market sentiment
.
China's November PMI index is expected to rise, and macro data is unchanged
.
The dollar index fell below 92, which technically has the potential to
accelerate its decline.
In terms of news, a mine in Chile that has been on strike for more than a month announced that it accepted a wage proposal, resulting in a strike, although there are still large mines threatening to strike
.
According to reports, the mine and the refinery will have a serious long-term game next year, and the mine hopes to set the processing fee at about $55, which will be the level
of refinery losses.
Therefore, the game before the long order has further exacerbated the tension
in the copper market.
The fall in the dollar drove the base metal to a general rise, with London copper rising to $7,500, Shanghai copper trading stocks slightly down more than 3,000 tonnes last week, and Chinese and LME inventories continuing to decline since October, but China's bonded inventories increased and total inventories increased
.
However, domestic consumption has remained strong recently, the weakening of cable demand has been offset by other civilian demand, Shanghai stock stocks have fallen below 100,000 tons, copper prices have risen sharply, but spot premiums remain strong
.
The supply of copper scrap is tight, copper rod factories are difficult to purchase raw materials, low-oxygen rod orders are better, and the price difference with oxygen-free rods remains low
.
Imported copper raw materials under the new tariff rules have arrived one after another, but customs inspections are strict and customs clearance is slow
.
In addition, the overseas epidemic is serious, the current refined scrap price spread has narrowed to 19 cents, at an extremely low level, the impact of the epidemic on copper mine and copper scrap production and transportation may increase significantly, the supply of scrap copper at the end of the year may continue to be tight, and speculate transportation interference
.
In the short term, domestic downstream demand remains resilient, consumption is significantly better than expected at the beginning of the month, scrap copper tension and high spot premium of electric copper still support copper prices strong, macro whether vaccine speculation or new stimulus plans in Europe and the United States are expected to continue to be positive, short-term US dollars if the break after accelerating the decline, good for commodities
.
Shanghai copper upward and stable growth of positions, the momentum is still strong, the bull pattern has not changed, the previous low long holding, short-term pullback can still be bought
.
