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Recently, the price trend of Shanghai aluminum maintained a trend of falling first and then rising; The average weekly settlement price of the 1911 contract of Shanghai Aluminum in the current month was 13840 yuan, down about 1% from last week's settlement price; The weekly chart rose 0.
29%.
Indonesia's aluminum production surged, the gold nine silver ten market did not appear, the market demand prospects are still not good, Shanghai aluminum weak and falling; However, the production speed of domestic electrolytic aluminum has not been significantly improved, and the recent willingness of holders to raise prices is strong, and the price of Shanghai aluminum has risen
.
In the external market, the expectation of global recession increased, market risk aversion fermented, and the price of London aluminum fell; However, China and the United States stepped up trade and worked hard to reach an agreement, the market maintained optimistic expectations, and Lun Aluminum rebounded
.
The price trend of aluminum during the week maintained a volatile upward trend
.
The market mainly focuses on the $1700 support level
.
In terms of the market, the recent spot aluminum price trend maintained a trend of first falling and then rising, the data shows that the weekly average quotation of Yangtze River spot AOO aluminum ingots is 13882 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan / ton per week, and the average price of Yangtze spot aluminum per ton in the previous week was 14023 yuan, down 141 yuan / ton, down 1%
month-on-month.
The poor performance of domestic trade data has exacerbated concerns about slowing market demand, and aluminum prices have been under pressure due to lack
of support.
China's aluminum industry delayed the commissioning of Guinea bauxite to reduce the pressure of global aluminum oversupply, and spot aluminum prices benefited from the rise
.
Inventory analysis, the trend of aluminum inventory maintained a trend of first rising and then declining, the latest inventory reported 977125 metric tons, a total of 2925 metric tons of increased inventory, an increase of about 0.
3%; The total stock of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 316466 tons, down 3,407 tons, or about 1%,
from last week.
Domestically: In the first three quarters of 2019, the total retail sales of consumer goods 296674 billion yuan, a year-on-year nominal increase of 8.
2%.
Internationally: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report, once again lowering its global economic growth forecast for 2019 to 3%, 0.
2% lower than its July forecast and the lowest level
since the '08 financial crisis.
Aluminum market dynamics:
1.
In the past six months (according to the Iranian calendar), the output of Iranian alumina company reached 10,2000 tons, the output of α-type alumina was 8,000 tons, and the output of γ-type alumina was 5,800 tons
.
2.
The supply gap of the primary aluminum market from January to August 2019 was 262,000 tons, and the gap for the whole year of 2018 was 631,000 tons
.
Outlook: Investors' optimism about the prospect of a trade deal between China and the United States has waned, the outlook for metals is doubtful, and the upside of spot aluminum prices is limited
.
Market demand is not good, the effect of gold nine silver ten has not appeared, aluminum prices lack support, and spot aluminum prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend
.
