Market bullish sentiment increases PVC spot futures rose sharply

After the holiday, most companies still maintained pre-sales
.
Before the holiday, most PVC companies have received orders until mid-October, and some enterprises still receive orders during the holiday, so most companies still maintain pre-sales
after the holiday.
It is reported that the suspension of Tianjin Port is still continuing, and it is reported that the suspension will be suspended until October 11, which through the investigation of Inner Mongolia and some northwest enterprises, the suspension does have a certain impact on shipments, especially South China shipping
.
However, the inventory of most enterprises in Inner Mongolia is not much, basically about 2,000 tons, so it has not formed obvious pressure on the factory inventory for the time being; Xinjiang and Shaanxi increased the delivery of rail and other modes of transportation, because the price of PVC in South China is now 200-300 yuan / ton higher than that in East China, so enterprises are still willing to send to South China
.

During the holidays, some installations were started and upgraded, and maintenance after the holidays increased
.
It is understood that during the National Day holiday, Inner Mongolia Dongxing discharged, the current daily output of about 300 tons, Wuhai Chemical started to increase, Xinjiang Zhongtai Midong plant load increased; However, there are more maintenance enterprises after the holiday, and it is expected that the start of construction may decline
.
From the perspective of maintenance, the planned maintenance capacity involved in October was 3.
25 million tons, and it is expected that the operating rate of the PVC industry may decline
slightly in the middle and late months.

After the holiday, social inventories are expected to change little, and the market circulation spot is still not much
.
East China before the holiday on September 25 social inventory in 237,300 tons, September 30 about 225,000 tons, through research, the day is expected to be around 235,000 tons (there are still warehouses in verification, official data has not yet been released), compared with the 25 days before the holiday inventory or slightly down (Zhuochuang official statistics before the holiday to the 25th), but compared with the 30th increase of 10,000 tons, East China accumulation is not large, on the one hand, because the downstream before the holiday actively pick up goods, social inventory decline is faster, on the other hand, the holiday arrival is general
。 South China is expected to continue to decline in shipping, mainly due to the impact of the shutdown of Tianjin Port and Cypriot Port, and warehouse inventory has not changed much
.

Compared with the same period last year, East China last year was 170,700 tons, South China was 34,000 tons, so this year's South China inventory has been much lower than the same period last year, the market supply is indeed tight, traders are mostly in the pre-sale of distant futures sources; and the absolute value of inventory in East China is higher than last year, which is also the main reason for the widening of the price difference in South China and East China, but it is expected that some sources in East China may appear tense in the later period, mainly because of maintenance and to pay foreign trade orders
in September.

Before the holiday, the downstream is properly stocked, but with the rise in the price of futures spot, the market is still highly motivated to take goods, on the one hand, the downstream that has not been prepared before the holiday actively replenishes, on the other hand, it shows that there is a downstream receiving capacity
.
The spot in East China is about 6800 yuan / ton, and the South China region is about 7000 yuan / ton, and traders react to trading more actively
.
Since mid-to-late September, some downstream enterprises have responded that the start of construction has increased to a certain extent, and the start of individual large factory bases in September is better than that in other regions, and it is expected to continue in October, so on the whole, October is just
demanding.
But if prices continue to rise, it remains to be seen
whether downstream can continue to chase up.