Market analysis of rapeseed at home and abroad

Introduction: 1 According to the report of oil world, CFG of international rapeseed market, it is estimated that the total output of 11 major rapeseed producing countries in 2003 / 04 will be 3.38 million tons, 16% higher than that in 2002 / 03, and the total supply will be 40.66 million tons, 4.78 million tons higher than that in the previous year, so the international market price will be reduced accordingly this year The world's crushing capacity is 29.9 million tons, up 12% from the previous year Although total consumption has increased, it is not enough to offset the increase in total supply It is estimated that the inventory at the end of the year will be 1.406 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year's 1.164 million tons, but still lower than the five-year average of 2.25 million tons The weather in the European Union is ideal, and this year's high yield is a foregone conclusion The production of Australia and Canada is likely to fluctuate greatly, mainly affected by precipitation Last year, the weather in the two countries was relatively dry, and this year has improved If there is no major disaster in the later weather, the production and export volume will be higher than last year CFG WCE closed Friday at $337.4 (about usd278 / mt, FOB), with a recent resistance level of $385 and is expected to rise to $395-400 later CFG 2 The domestic market of rapeseed is expected to produce 12 million tons of rapeseed this year, an increase of 1.5 million tons compared with last year Up to now, although the rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin once slowed down the production process of rapeseed in this area, the weather conditions in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Northeast China are better than in previous years If there is no major disaster, the output will be higher than last year Generally speaking, the growth conditions of rapeseed in China are better It is conservatively estimated that China's import volume this year will be about 700000 tons, which is likely to reach 1.2 million tons, and it is estimated that 11.8 million tons will be used for crushing The predicted purchase price of CFG in the Yangtze River Basin is 1.05-1.10 yuan / Jin, that in Sichuan is about 1 yuan, and that in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is about 1.2 yuan If we plan to purchase or import rapeseed this year, I think we should look at the domestic and international rapeseed and rapeseed prices for another two to three months, miss the peak of domestic vegetable oil tanker exchange and make a decision after the production in Australia and Canada is clear The risk is relatively small CFG   CFG