Market analysis of domestic grain and oil varieties in the near future (feed)

Introduction: feed price fluctuation may increase feed price fluctuation may increase 57V feed varieties mainly include corn and meal Because they are mostly affected by production, consumption season, market auction, import and export and other factors, the range of fluctuation is relatively large In the first quarter of the 57V corn season, domestic corn prices generally rose Among them, the price of each ton in North China increased by 50-60 yuan to 1020-1060 yuan, the market price of corn in Jilin increased by 60 yuan to 970 yuan, and the price of new corn in Nanchang, Jiangxi increased from 1130 yuan to 1180 yuan Can corn prices rise further in the later period? The following is a brief analysis of the factors affecting the price trend of corn First of all, the yield of 57V depends on the planting area of domestic corn In 2002, the planting area of domestic corn was 24.5 million hectares Due to the expansion of cotton and soybean areas and the impact of the national policy of returning farmland to forest, the corn area is expected to be reduced to 23.06 million hectares in 2003, with a decrease rate of 5.87%, which may lead to the reduction of corn yield In terms of 57V consumption, it is estimated that the corn supply in 2003 will be 124.2 million tons, including about 200000 tons of imports, of which feed accounts for 89 million tons, industrial consumption for 12.5 million tons, and export for 10 million tons In addition to other consumption, it is estimated that the total annual consumption will be about 12900 tons, resulting in about 500 tons The supply and demand gap of 10000 tons will be greatly alleviated and the inventory will continue to decrease 57V from the perspective of corn export situation, China will still export about 10 million tons of corn in 2003 due to national policy support and price advantages Take South Korea as an example, the CNF price of corn from China to its port is US $115-118 per ton, while that from the US is US $135-138 In addition, the price difference between American corn and Chinese corn is about 200 yuan at the domestic port, so the corn import volume is still small In general, due to the huge demand for domestic corn export, domestic sales and replenishment, the market advantage factor is in the ascendant It is expected that corn price will be adjusted for a period of time in the current price, and there is still some upside space in the later stage Compared with 57V soybean meal, the market fluctuation of soybean meal price is relatively large, and there are often big ups and downs In addition to the influence of seasonal consumption factors, its output largely affects the price of soybean meal In the first quarter, domestic soybean meal prices fluctuated by more than 10% At the end of March, the market prices varied from 2000 to 2060 yuan / ton, down about 8% from the beginning of January However, in recent days, the price has risen to more than 2100 yuan / ton Once the factory price of oil plants is raised again, it is estimated that the price will rise in the short term According to the analysis of 57V, the first factor of soybean meal price is its raw material soybean In recent years, with the development of domestic processing industry, domestic soybean has been unable to meet its consumption Second, in terms of production As the soybean meal is the finished product of soybean, there is no obvious seasonal difference in output, and it is basically a continuous production Only when the oil plant suffers from crushing loss, its output will decline and affect the market price of soybean meal Third, the import and export situation In the past few years, as the domestic soybean processing industry was in its infancy, the soybean meal import was relatively large at that time However, with the increase of domestic soybean meal production in recent years, a small amount of soybean meal began to be exported to the surrounding countries According to customs statistics, from January to February this year, China exported 86200 tons of soybean meal, while the import volume was zero Fourth, consumption As soybean meal is mainly consumed by feed, it shows obvious seasonal consumption characteristics Once consumption increases, its price will rise in a short period of time, and vice versa, which is also a main reason for its price to fluctuate significantly It is understood that only last July to September, the market price of soybean meal dropped by about 20% Fifthly, because the soybean meal is not easy to store, so the stock is quite limited, and feed enterprises mostly use the business mode of seeking and purchasing while producing Sixth, some large oil processing enterprises, such as Donghai oil, to a certain extent affect the spot price of soybean meal Due to its own characteristics, soybean meal production is mostly controlled by some large-scale processing enterprises in the coastal area, which objectively results in the behavior of manipulating the market price from time to time In addition, there is a certain price relationship between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, cottonseed meal These factors above 57V will affect the trend of soybean meal market in the near and long term, so it is difficult to grasp the soybean meal market As far as the short-term market is concerned, soybean meal prices do not rule out the possibility of upward trend 57v
57v